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Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

Most recent - Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30

Previous
0.7%
Revised
0.9%
Forecast
-0.3%
Actual
-0.1%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Thursday 14 December 2023 13:30

Previous
-0.1%
Forecast
-0.1%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Retail Sales (MoM) is -0.1%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (MoM) was -0.1% against a forecast of -0.3%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30
-0.3%
-0.1%
Tuesday 17 October 2023 12:30
0.3%
0.7%
Thursday 14 September 2023 12:30
0.2%
0.6%
Tuesday 15 August 2023 12:30
0.4%
0.7%
Tuesday 18 July 2023 12:30
0.5%
0.2%
Thursday 15 June 2023 12:30
-0.1%
0.3%
Tuesday 16 May 2023 12:30
0.7%
0.4%
Friday 14 April 2023 12:30
-0.4%
-1%
Wednesday 15 March 2023 12:30
-0.3%
-0.4%
Wednesday 15 February 2023 13:30
1.8%
3%
Wednesday 18 January 2023 13:30
-0.8%
-1.1%
Thursday 15 December 2022 13:30
-0.1%
-0.6%
Wednesday 16 November 2022 13:30
1%
1.3%
Friday 14 October 2022 12:30
0.2%
0%
Thursday 15 September 2022 12:30
0%
0.3%
Wednesday 17 August 2022 12:30
0.1%
0%
Friday 15 July 2022 12:30
0.8%
1%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 12:30
0.2%
-0.3%
Tuesday 17 May 2022 12:30
0.7%
0.9%
Thursday 14 April 2022 12:30
0.6%
0.5%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 12:30
0.4%
0.3%
Wednesday 16 February 2022 13:30
2%
3.8%
Friday 14 January 2022 13:30
0%
-1.9%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 13:30
0.8%
0.3%
Tuesday 16 November 2021 13:30
1.4%
1.7%
Friday 15 October 2021 12:30
-0.2%
0.7%
Thursday 16 September 2021 12:30
-0.8%
0.7%
Tuesday 17 August 2021 12:30
-0.3%
-1.1%
Friday 16 July 2021 12:30
-0.4%
0.6%
Tuesday 15 June 2021 12:30
-0.8%
-1.3%
Friday 14 May 2021 12:30
1%
0%
Thursday 15 April 2021 12:30
5.9%
9.8%
Tuesday 16 March 2021 12:30
-0.5%
-3%
Wednesday 17 February 2021 13:30
1.1%
5.3%
Friday 15 January 2021 13:30
0%
-0.7%
Wednesday 16 December 2020 13:30
-0.3%
-1.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (MoM) result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change61.369.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%2.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)4%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.7%62.8%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change150K199K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.2%7%
Unemployment RateBullish change3.9%3.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change218K220K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change36.836K45.51K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change4.7%5.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change-0.8%-1.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change106K103K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change50.250.7
ISM Services New Orders Index(no change)55.555.5
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.852.7
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change58.658.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change9.35M8.733M
S&P Global Composite PMI(no change)50.750.7
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change2.3%-3.6%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change46.845.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change45.548.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)46.746.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change45.149.9
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1%-1.5%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change4455.8
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.7%3.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change211K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.4%3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.7%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change4.9%5.2%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)3.5%3.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.9%2.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.6%0.6%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change8.6%-5.6%

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Census Bureau
Category:Consumption
Frequency:Monthly
 
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