Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Next event - Thursday 2 July 2026 12:30

Previous
4.3%
Forecast
4.3%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Unemployment Rate is 4.3%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Most recent - Friday 5 June 2026 12:30

Previous
4.3%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.3%
Actual
4.3%

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.3% against a forecast of 4.3%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 5 June 2026 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 8 May 2026 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 3 April 2026 12:30
4.4%
4.3%
Friday 6 March 2026 13:30
4.3%
4.4%
Wednesday 11 February 2026 13:30
4.4%
4.3%
Friday 6 February 2026 13:30
-
-
Friday 9 January 2026 13:30
4.5%
4.4%
Tuesday 16 December 2025 13:30
4.4%
4.6%
Thursday 20 November 2025 13:30
4.3%
4.4%
Friday 7 November 2025 13:30
4.3%
-
Friday 3 October 2025 12:30
4.3%
-
Friday 5 September 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 1 August 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.1%
Friday 6 June 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 May 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 4 April 2025 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.8%
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change48.649.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change56.856
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change5453.3
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change82.173
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change122K98K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change97.006K45.849K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.585M7.594M
Chicago PMIBearish change62.756.7
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%-0.1%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change49.350.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change48.949.5
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations(no change)4.6%4.6%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.4%3.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.3%3.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)4.4%4.4%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change8.5%-4.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change8.4%-4.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change1.4%1.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change1.6%2.1%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change3.5%3.6%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change227K215K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.7%1.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.8%4.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change4.5%4.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0%0.7%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.4%0.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change-5.7%-7.3%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change51.552.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change55.155.7
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change50.751.3
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change26.5K30.75K
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change230K226K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBullish change-0.410.3
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)3.75%3.75%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change3.1%3.6%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBullish change3.1%3.4%
Interest Rate Projections - CurrentBullish change3.4%3.8%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)3.1%3.1%

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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