Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Most recent - Friday 2 October 2026 12:30

Previous
4.1%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.1%
Actual
4.2%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Friday 6 November 2026 12:30

Previous
4.2%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Unemployment Rate yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.2% against a forecast of 4.1%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 2 October 2026 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 4 September 2026 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 7 August 2026 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Thursday 2 July 2026 12:30
4.3%
4.2%
Friday 5 June 2026 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 8 May 2026 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 3 April 2026 12:30
4.4%
4.3%
Friday 6 March 2026 13:30
4.3%
4.4%
Wednesday 11 February 2026 13:30
4.4%
4.3%
Friday 9 January 2026 13:30
4.5%
4.4%
Tuesday 16 December 2025 13:30
4.4%
4.6%
Thursday 20 November 2025 13:30
4.3%
4.4%
Friday 5 September 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 1 August 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.1%
Friday 6 June 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 May 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 4 April 2025 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3%3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change3.3%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change2.2%3.4%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change6.1%2.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change195K194K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.4%3.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change5%2.1%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.9%0.5%
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4%4%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change5.1%-0.6%
Housing Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change0.1%1.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change0.3%2.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0.2%0.5%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change1.6%0.5%
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBearish change17.5K16.8K
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change47.348.8
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change46.348
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations(no change)4.7%4.7%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3.5%3.5%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change58.457.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change55.956
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change58.857.9
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change200K194K
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.3%-7.3%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.403M1.4M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bearish change1.288M1.221M
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBearish change24.75K18.5K
Monthly Budget StatementBullish change$-166.8B$-27B
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.7%

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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