Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot-plot, on a quarterly basis. The publication summarizes policymakers' outlook for the federal funds rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. It is widely used as a guide to figure out the location of the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot. Higher projected interest rates usually support the US Dollar, while lower projections weigh down on the USD.

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Most recent - Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00

3.1%

Actual

3.1%

Next event - Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00

3.1%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

Trading range

Announcement history

The most recent announced value for Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year was 3.1%.

Past events

Date

Actual

Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00

3.1%

Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00

3.1%

Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00

3.9%

Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00

3.4%

Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00

2.8%

Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00

1.6%

Wednesday 22 September 2021 18:00

Wednesday 16 June 2021 18:00

0.6%

Wednesday 17 March 2021 18:00

0.1%

Wednesday 16 December 2020 19:00

0.1%

Wednesday 16 September 2020 18:00

0.1%

Wednesday 10 June 2020 18:00

0.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year result:

		Previous	Latest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	Bearish change	4.4%	4.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate	(no change)	62.6%	62.6%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bullish change	294K	339K
U6 Underemployment Rate	Bearish change	6.6%	6.7%
Unemployment Rate	Bearish change	3.4%	3.7%
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bullish change	50.2	51.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bearish change	45.7	42.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	47.1	46.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bearish change	53.2	44.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	48.5	48.4
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	230K	232K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average	Bullish change	232K	229.5K
Nonfarm Productivity	Bullish change	-2.7%	-2.1%
Unit Labor Costs	Bearish change	6.3%	4.2%
ADP Employment Change	Bearish change	291K	278K
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bearish change	48.6	40.4
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)	Bearish change	0.4%	-1.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	57.7	59.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	Bearish change	3.2%	3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	4.6%	4.7%
Durable Goods Orders	Bearish change	3.3%	1.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bearish change	3.2%	-0.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bearish change	0.3%	-0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bullish change	-0.6%	1.4%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.1%	0.8%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	-5.2%	0%
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Bullish change	-0.37	0.07
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bullish change	4.9%	5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bullish change	1.1%	1.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	Bullish change	4%	4.2%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	225K	229K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average	(no change)	231.75K	231.75K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	(no change)	4.2%	4.2%
New Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	0.656M	0.683M
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bullish change	53.4	54.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	50.2	48.5
S&P Global Services PMI	Bullish change	53.6	55.1

About Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	Federal Reserve
Category:	Central Banks
Frequency:	Irregular

Related events

	Australia		RBA Rate Statement
	Australia		RBA's Governor Lowe speech
	Australia		RBA Meeting Minutes
	Australia		RBA Monetary Policy Statement
	Canada		BoC Press Conference
	Canada		Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
	Canada		BoC Rate Statement
	Canada		BoC's Governor Macklem speech
	Switzerland		SNB's Chairman Jordan speech
	Switzerland		SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
	Switzerland		SNB Press Conference
	Eurozone		ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement
	Eurozone		ECB Bank Lending Survey
	Eurozone		ECB Press Conference
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	Eurozone		ECB's President Lagarde speech
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	Japan		BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	Japan		BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
	Japan		BoJ Press Conference
	Japan		BoJ Governor Nominee Ueda speech
	New Zealand		RBNZ Rate Statement
	New Zealand		RBNZ's Governor Orr speech
	New Zealand		RBNZ Press Conference
	New Zealand		Monetary Policy Statement
	United Kingdom		Monetary Policy Summary
	United Kingdom		BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut
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	United Kingdom		BoE's Governor Bailey speech
	United Kingdom		Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
	United Kingdom		Bank of England Minutes
	United Kingdom		BoE Asset Purchase Facility
	United States		Fed's Chair Powell testifies
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	United States		FOMC Economic Projections
	United States		Interest Rate Projections - 1st year
	United States		FOMC Press Conference
	United States		Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year
	United States		Fed's Chair Powell speech
	United States		Jackson Hole Symposium
	United States		Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
	United States		Interest Rate Projections - Longer
	United States		FOMC Minutes
	United States		Interest Rate Projections - Current
	Australia		RBA's Bullock speech
	Australia		RBA's Ellis speech
	Australia		RBA's Kent speech
	Canada
	Canada		BoC's Gravelle speech
	Canada		BoC's Beaudry speech
	Canada		BoC's Rogers speech
	Switzerland		SNB Quarterly Bulletin
	Switzerland		SNB's Maechler speech
	Switzerland		SNB Financial Stability Report
	Germany		German Buba President Nagel speech
	Eurozone		G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
	Eurozone		ECB's Lane speech
	Eurozone		ECB's Schnabel speech
	Eurozone		ECB's Panetta speech
	Eurozone		ECB's De Guindos speech
	Eurozone		EU Financial Stability Review
	Eurozone		ECB's Villeroy speech
	Eurozone		ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
	Eurozone		ECB's Elderson speech
	Eurozone		Economic Bulletin
	Japan		BoJ Outlook Report
	New Zealand		RBNZ Financial Stability Report
	United Kingdom		BoE's Mann speech
	United Kingdom		BoE's Pill speech
	United Kingdom		Financial Stability Report
	United Kingdom		BoE's Cunliffe speech
	United Kingdom		BoE's Ramsden speech
	United Kingdom		BoE's Haskel speech
	United Kingdom		BoE's Tenreyro speech
	United Kingdom		BoE's Broadbent speech
	United States		Fed's Bowman speech
	United States		Fed's Collins speech
	United States		Fed's Bostic speech
	United States		Fed's Goolsbee speech
	United States		Fed's George speech
	United States		Fed's Daly speech
	United States		Fed's Cook speech
	United States		Fed's Brainard speech
	United States		Fed's Evans speech
	United States		Fed's Williams speech
	United States		Fed's Logan speech
	United States		Fed's Chair Yellen testifies
	United States		Fed's Barkin speech
	United States		Fed's Rosengren speech
	United States		Fed's Waller speech
	United States		Fed Monetary Policy Report
	United States		Fed's Beige Book
	United States		Fed's Jefferson speech
	United States		Fed's Mester speech
	United States		Fed's Harker speech
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Calendar - Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year - United States

Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

Most recent - Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00

Next event - Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00

Trading range

Trading range after each Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year event

Announcement history

Past events

Economic context

About Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

Related events