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Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot-plot, on a quarterly basis. The publication summarizes policymakers' outlook for the federal funds rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. It is widely used as a guide to figure out the location of the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot. Higher projected interest rates usually support the US Dollar, while lower projections weigh down on the USD.

Most recent - Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00

Previous
3.4%
Actual
3.9%

Next event - Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00

Previous
3.9%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

Trading range

Announcement history

The most recent announced value for Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year was 3.9%.

Past events

Date
Actual
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
3.9%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
3.4%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
3.1%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
3.1%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.9%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
3.4%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00
2.8%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00
1.6%
Wednesday 22 September 2021 18:00
1%
Wednesday 16 June 2021 18:00
0.6%
Wednesday 17 March 2021 18:00
0.1%
Wednesday 16 December 2020 19:00
0.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change61.369.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%2.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)4%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.7%62.8%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change150K199K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.2%7%
Unemployment RateBullish change3.9%3.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change218K220K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change36.836K45.51K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change4.7%5.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change-0.8%-1.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change106K103K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change50.250.7
ISM Services New Orders Index(no change)55.555.5
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.852.7
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change58.658.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change9.35M8.733M
S&P Global Composite PMI(no change)50.750.7
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change2.3%-3.6%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change46.845.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change45.548.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)46.746.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change45.149.9
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1%-1.5%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change4455.8
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.7%3.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change211K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.4%3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.7%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change4.9%5.2%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)3.5%3.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.9%2.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.6%0.6%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change8.6%-5.6%

About Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Central Banks
Frequency:Irregular

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