Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

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Most recent - Friday 26 May 2023 12:30

4.6%

Revised

Forecast

4.6%

Actual

4.7%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 30 June 2023 12:30

4.7%

Forecast

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) was 4.7% against a forecast of 4.6%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Friday 26 May 2023 12:30

4.6%

4.7%

Friday 28 April 2023 12:30

4.5%

4.6%

Friday 31 March 2023 12:30

4.7%

4.6%

Friday 24 February 2023 13:30

4.3%

4.7%

Friday 27 January 2023 13:30

4.4%

Friday 23 December 2022 13:30

4.7%

Thursday 1 December 2022 13:30

Friday 28 October 2022 12:30

5.2%

5.1%

Friday 30 September 2022 12:30

4.7%

4.9%

Friday 26 August 2022 12:30

4.7%

4.6%

Friday 29 July 2022 12:30

4.7%

4.8%

Thursday 30 June 2022 12:30

4.7%

Friday 27 May 2022 12:30

4.9%

Friday 29 April 2022 12:30

5.3%

5.2%

Thursday 31 March 2022 12:30

5.5%

5.4%

Friday 25 February 2022 13:30

5.1%

5.2%

Friday 28 January 2022 13:30

4.8%

4.9%

Thursday 23 December 2021 13:30

4.5%

4.7%

Wednesday 24 November 2021 15:00

4.1%

Friday 29 October 2021 12:30

3.7%

3.6%

Friday 1 October 2021 12:30

3.6%

Friday 27 August 2021 12:30

3.6%

Friday 30 July 2021 12:30

3.7%

3.5%

Friday 25 June 2021 12:30

3.4%

Friday 28 May 2021 12:30

2.9%

3.1%

Friday 30 April 2021 12:30

1.8%

Friday 26 March 2021 12:30

1.5%

1.4%

Friday 26 February 2021 13:30

1.4%

1.5%

Friday 29 January 2021 13:30

1.3%

1.5%

Wednesday 23 December 2020 13:30

1.5%

1.4%

Wednesday 25 November 2020 15:00

1.4%

Friday 30 October 2020 12:30

1.7%

1.5%

Thursday 1 October 2020 12:30

1.4%

1.6%

Friday 28 August 2020 12:30

1.2%

1.3%

Friday 31 July 2020 12:30

0.9%

Friday 26 June 2020 12:30

0.9%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) result:

		Previous	Latest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	Bearish change	4.4%	4.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate	(no change)	62.6%	62.6%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bullish change	294K	339K
U6 Underemployment Rate	Bearish change	6.6%	6.7%
Unemployment Rate	Bearish change	3.4%	3.7%
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bullish change	50.2	51.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bearish change	45.7	42.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	47.1	46.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bearish change	53.2	44.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	48.5	48.4
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	230K	232K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average	Bullish change	232K	229.5K
Nonfarm Productivity	Bullish change	-2.7%	-2.1%
Unit Labor Costs	Bearish change	6.3%	4.2%
ADP Employment Change	Bearish change	291K	278K
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bearish change	48.6	40.4
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)	Bearish change	0.4%	-1.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	57.7	59.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	Bearish change	3.2%	3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Durable Goods Orders	Bearish change	3.3%	1.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bearish change	3.2%	-0.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bearish change	0.3%	-0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bullish change	-0.6%	1.4%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.1%	0.8%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	-5.2%	0%
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Bullish change	-0.37	0.07
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bullish change	4.9%	5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bullish change	1.1%	1.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	Bullish change	4%	4.2%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	225K	229K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average	(no change)	231.75K	231.75K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	(no change)	4.2%	4.2%
New Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	0.656M	0.683M
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bullish change	53.4	54.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	50.2	48.5
S&P Global Services PMI	Bullish change	53.6	55.1

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:	Inflation
Frequency:	Monthly

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Calendar - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) - United States

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Most recent - Friday 26 May 2023 12:30

Next event - Friday 30 June 2023 12:30

Trading range

Trading range after each Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Related events