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Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

Most recent - Thursday 30 November 2023 13:30

Previous
3.7%
Revised
-
Forecast
3.5%
Actual
3.5%

Next event - Friday 22 December 2023 13:30

Previous
3.5%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) was 3.5% against a forecast of 3.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 30 November 2023 13:30
3.5%
3.5%
Friday 27 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 29 September 2023 12:30
3.9%
3.9%
Thursday 31 August 2023 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 28 July 2023 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 30 June 2023 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 26 May 2023 12:30
4.6%
4.7%
Friday 28 April 2023 12:30
4.5%
4.6%
Friday 31 March 2023 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 24 February 2023 13:30
4.3%
4.7%
Friday 27 January 2023 13:30
-
4.4%
Friday 23 December 2022 13:30
4.7%
4.7%
Thursday 1 December 2022 13:30
5%
5%
Friday 28 October 2022 12:30
5.2%
5.1%
Friday 30 September 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.9%
Friday 26 August 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 29 July 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.8%
Thursday 30 June 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.7%
Friday 27 May 2022 12:30
4.9%
4.9%
Friday 29 April 2022 12:30
5.3%
5.2%
Thursday 31 March 2022 12:30
5.5%
5.4%
Friday 25 February 2022 13:30
5.1%
5.2%
Friday 28 January 2022 13:30
4.8%
4.9%
Thursday 23 December 2021 13:30
4.5%
4.7%
Wednesday 24 November 2021 15:00
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 29 October 2021 12:30
3.7%
3.6%
Friday 1 October 2021 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 27 August 2021 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 30 July 2021 12:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 25 June 2021 12:30
3.4%
3.4%
Friday 28 May 2021 12:30
2.9%
3.1%
Friday 30 April 2021 12:30
1.8%
1.8%
Friday 26 March 2021 12:30
1.5%
1.4%
Friday 26 February 2021 13:30
1.4%
1.5%
Friday 29 January 2021 13:30
1.3%
1.5%
Wednesday 23 December 2020 13:30
1.5%
1.4%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change61.369.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%2.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)4%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.7%62.8%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change150K199K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.2%7%
Unemployment RateBullish change3.9%3.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change218K220K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change36.836K45.51K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change4.7%5.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change-0.8%-1.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change106K103K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change50.250.7
ISM Services New Orders Index(no change)55.555.5
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.852.7
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change58.658.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change9.35M8.733M
S&P Global Composite PMI(no change)50.750.7
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change2.3%-3.6%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change46.845.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change45.548.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)46.746.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change45.149.9
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1%-1.5%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change4455.8
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change211K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.4%3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.7%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change4.9%5.2%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)3.5%3.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.9%2.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.6%0.6%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change8.6%-5.6%

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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