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Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

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Most recent - Friday 28 March 2025 12:30

2.7%

Revised

2.7%

Forecast

2.7%

Actual

2.8%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:30

2.8%

Forecast

2.6%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) is 2.6%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) was 2.8% against a forecast of 2.7%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Friday 28 March 2025 12:30

2.7%

2.8%

Friday 28 February 2025 13:30

2.6%

Friday 31 January 2025 13:30

2.8%

Friday 20 December 2024 13:30

2.9%

2.8%

Wednesday 27 November 2024 15:00

2.8%

Thursday 31 October 2024 12:30

2.6%

2.7%

Friday 27 September 2024 12:30

2.7%

Friday 30 August 2024 12:30

2.7%

2.6%

Friday 26 July 2024 12:30

2.5%

2.6%

Friday 28 June 2024 12:30

2.6%

Friday 31 May 2024 12:30

2.8%

Friday 26 April 2024 12:30

2.6%

2.8%

Friday 29 March 2024 12:30

2.8%

Thursday 29 February 2024 13:30

2.8%

Friday 26 January 2024 13:30

2.9%

Friday 22 December 2023 13:30

3.3%

3.2%

Thursday 30 November 2023 13:30

3.5%

Friday 27 October 2023 12:30

3.7%

Friday 29 September 2023 12:30

3.9%

Thursday 31 August 2023 12:30

4.2%

Friday 28 July 2023 12:30

4.2%

4.1%

Friday 30 June 2023 12:30

4.7%

4.6%

Friday 26 May 2023 12:30

4.6%

4.7%

Friday 28 April 2023 12:30

4.5%

4.6%

Friday 31 March 2023 12:30

4.7%

4.6%

Friday 24 February 2023 13:30

4.3%

4.7%

Friday 27 January 2023 13:30

4.4%

Friday 23 December 2022 13:30

4.7%

Thursday 1 December 2022 13:30

Friday 28 October 2022 12:30

5.2%

5.1%

Friday 30 September 2022 12:30

4.7%

4.9%

Friday 26 August 2022 12:30

4.7%

4.6%

Friday 29 July 2022 12:30

4.7%

4.8%

Thursday 30 June 2022 12:30

4.7%

Friday 27 May 2022 12:30

4.9%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) result:

		Previous	Latest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	50.8	52.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	(no change)	4.4%	4.4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index	Bullish change	47.2	47.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations	Bearish change	6.7%	6.5%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bearish change	4.4%	-5.9%
Durable Goods Orders	Bullish change	0.9%	9.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bullish change	0.8%	10.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bearish change	0.7%	0%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	216K	222K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bullish change	-0.3%	0.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bullish change	3.1%	7.4%
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bearish change	53.5	51.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bullish change	50.2	50.7
S&P Global Services PMI	Bearish change	54.4	51.4
Building Permits (MoM)	Bullish change	1.459M	1.482M
Housing Starts (MoM)	Bearish change	1.494M	1.324M
Initial Jobless Claims	Bullish change	224K	215K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey	Bearish change	12.5	-26.4
Industrial Production (MoM)	Bearish change	0.8%	-0.3%
Retail Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	0.2%	1.4%
Retail Sales Control Group	Bearish change	1.3%	0.4%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.5%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Bullish change	-20	-8.1

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:	Inflation
Frequency:	Monthly

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Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Most recent - Friday 28 March 2025 12:30

Next event - Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:30

Trading range

Trading range after each Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Related events