Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

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Most recent - Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30

5.6%

Forecast

5.5%

Actual

5.5%

Next event - Tuesday 13 June 2023 12:30

5.5%

Forecast

5.6%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) is 5.6%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) was 5.5% against a forecast of 5.5%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30

5.5%

Wednesday 12 April 2023 12:30

5.6%

Tuesday 14 March 2023 12:30

5.5%

Tuesday 14 February 2023 13:30

5.5%

5.6%

Thursday 12 January 2023 13:30

5.7%

Tuesday 13 December 2022 13:30

6.1%

Thursday 10 November 2022 13:30

6.5%

6.3%

Thursday 13 October 2022 12:30

6.5%

6.6%

Tuesday 13 September 2022 12:30

6.1%

6.3%

Wednesday 10 August 2022 12:30

6.1%

5.9%

Wednesday 13 July 2022 12:30

5.7%

5.9%

Friday 10 June 2022 12:30

5.9%

Wednesday 11 May 2022 12:30

6.2%

Tuesday 12 April 2022 12:30

6.6%

6.5%

Thursday 10 March 2022 13:30

6.4%

Thursday 10 February 2022 13:30

5.9%

Wednesday 12 January 2022 13:30

5.4%

5.5%

Friday 10 December 2021 13:30

4.9%

Wednesday 10 November 2021 13:30

4.3%

4.6%

Wednesday 13 October 2021 12:30

Tuesday 14 September 2021 12:30

4.2%

Wednesday 11 August 2021 12:30

4.3%

Tuesday 13 July 2021 12:30

4.5%

Thursday 10 June 2021 12:30

3.4%

3.8%

Wednesday 12 May 2021 12:30

2.3%

Tuesday 13 April 2021 12:30

1.5%

1.6%

Wednesday 10 March 2021 13:30

1.4%

1.3%

Wednesday 10 February 2021 13:30

1.5%

1.4%

Wednesday 13 January 2021 13:30

1.6%

Thursday 10 December 2020 13:30

1.6%

Thursday 12 November 2020 13:30

1.8%

1.6%

Tuesday 13 October 2020 12:30

1.8%

1.7%

Friday 11 September 2020 12:30

1.6%

1.7%

Wednesday 12 August 2020 12:30

1.1%

1.6%

Tuesday 14 July 2020 12:30

1.1%

1.2%

Wednesday 10 June 2020 12:30

1.3%

1.2%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) result:

		Previous	Latest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	Bearish change	4.4%	4.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate	(no change)	62.6%	62.6%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bullish change	294K	339K
U6 Underemployment Rate	Bearish change	6.6%	6.7%
Unemployment Rate	Bearish change	3.4%	3.7%
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bullish change	50.2	51.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bearish change	45.7	42.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	47.1	46.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bearish change	53.2	44.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	48.5	48.4
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	230K	232K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average	Bullish change	232K	229.5K
Nonfarm Productivity	Bullish change	-2.7%	-2.1%
Unit Labor Costs	Bearish change	6.3%	4.2%
ADP Employment Change	Bearish change	291K	278K
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bearish change	48.6	40.4
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)	Bearish change	0.4%	-1.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	57.7	59.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	Bearish change	3.2%	3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	4.6%	4.7%
Durable Goods Orders	Bearish change	3.3%	1.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bearish change	3.2%	-0.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bearish change	0.3%	-0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bullish change	-0.6%	1.4%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.1%	0.8%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	-5.2%	0%
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Bullish change	-0.37	0.07
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bullish change	4.9%	5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bullish change	1.1%	1.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	Bullish change	4%	4.2%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	225K	229K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average	(no change)	231.75K	231.75K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	(no change)	4.2%	4.2%
New Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	0.656M	0.683M
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bullish change	53.4	54.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	50.2	48.5
S&P Global Services PMI	Bullish change	53.6	55.1

About Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:	Inflation
Frequency:	Monthly

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Calendar - Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) - United States

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Most recent - Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30

Next event - Tuesday 13 June 2023 12:30

Trading range

Trading range after each Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Related events