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Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Most recent - Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30

Previous
5.6%
Forecast
5.5%
Actual
5.5%

Next event - Tuesday 13 June 2023 12:30

Previous
5.5%
Forecast
5.6%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) is 5.6%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) was 5.5% against a forecast of 5.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 April 2023 12:30
5.6%
5.6%
Tuesday 14 March 2023 12:30
5.5%
5.5%
Tuesday 14 February 2023 13:30
5.5%
5.6%
Thursday 12 January 2023 13:30
5.7%
5.7%
Tuesday 13 December 2022 13:30
6.1%
6%
Thursday 10 November 2022 13:30
6.5%
6.3%
Thursday 13 October 2022 12:30
6.5%
6.6%
Tuesday 13 September 2022 12:30
6.1%
6.3%
Wednesday 10 August 2022 12:30
6.1%
5.9%
Wednesday 13 July 2022 12:30
5.7%
5.9%
Friday 10 June 2022 12:30
5.9%
6%
Wednesday 11 May 2022 12:30
6%
6.2%
Tuesday 12 April 2022 12:30
6.6%
6.5%
Thursday 10 March 2022 13:30
6.4%
6.4%
Thursday 10 February 2022 13:30
5.9%
6%
Wednesday 12 January 2022 13:30
5.4%
5.5%
Friday 10 December 2021 13:30
4.9%
4.9%
Wednesday 10 November 2021 13:30
4.3%
4.6%
Wednesday 13 October 2021 12:30
4%
4%
Tuesday 14 September 2021 12:30
4.2%
4%
Wednesday 11 August 2021 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Tuesday 13 July 2021 12:30
4%
4.5%
Thursday 10 June 2021 12:30
3.4%
3.8%
Wednesday 12 May 2021 12:30
2.3%
3%
Tuesday 13 April 2021 12:30
1.5%
1.6%
Wednesday 10 March 2021 13:30
1.4%
1.3%
Wednesday 10 February 2021 13:30
1.5%
1.4%
Wednesday 13 January 2021 13:30
1.6%
1.6%
Thursday 10 December 2020 13:30
1.6%
1.6%
Thursday 12 November 2020 13:30
1.8%
1.6%
Tuesday 13 October 2020 12:30
1.8%
1.7%
Friday 11 September 2020 12:30
1.6%
1.7%
Wednesday 12 August 2020 12:30
1.1%
1.6%
Tuesday 14 July 2020 12:30
1.1%
1.2%
Wednesday 10 June 2020 12:30
1.3%
1.2%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change4.4%4.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate(no change)62.6%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change294K339K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change6.6%6.7%
Unemployment RateBearish change3.4%3.7%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change50.251.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change45.742.6
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.146.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change53.244.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change48.548.4
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change230K232K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBullish change232K229.5K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change-2.7%-2.1%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change6.3%4.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change291K278K
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change48.640.4
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.7%0.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)Bearish change0.4%-1.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change57.759.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change4.6%4.7%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change3.3%1.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change3.2%-0.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.3%-0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.6%1.4%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.1%0.8%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-5.2%0%
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Bullish change-0.370.07
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change4.9%5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change1.1%1.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change4%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change225K229K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(no change)231.75K231.75K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)4.2%4.2%
New Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change0.656M0.683M
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change53.454.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change50.248.5
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change53.655.1

About Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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