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Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Most recent - Tuesday 14 November 2023 13:30

Previous
4.1%
Forecast
4.1%
Actual
4%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Tuesday 12 December 2023 13:30

Previous
4%
Forecast
4%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) is 4%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) was 4% against a forecast of 4.1%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 14 November 2023 13:30
4.1%
4%
Thursday 12 October 2023 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Wednesday 13 September 2023 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Thursday 10 August 2023 12:30
4.8%
4.7%
Wednesday 12 July 2023 12:30
5%
4.8%
Tuesday 13 June 2023 12:30
5.3%
5.3%
Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 April 2023 12:30
5.6%
5.6%
Tuesday 14 March 2023 12:30
5.5%
5.5%
Tuesday 14 February 2023 13:30
5.5%
5.6%
Thursday 12 January 2023 13:30
5.7%
5.7%
Tuesday 13 December 2022 13:30
6.1%
6%
Thursday 10 November 2022 13:30
6.5%
6.3%
Thursday 13 October 2022 12:30
6.5%
6.6%
Tuesday 13 September 2022 12:30
6.1%
6.3%
Wednesday 10 August 2022 12:30
6.1%
5.9%
Wednesday 13 July 2022 12:30
5.7%
5.9%
Friday 10 June 2022 12:30
5.9%
6%
Wednesday 11 May 2022 12:30
6%
6.2%
Tuesday 12 April 2022 12:30
6.6%
6.5%
Thursday 10 March 2022 13:30
6.4%
6.4%
Thursday 10 February 2022 13:30
5.9%
6%
Wednesday 12 January 2022 13:30
5.4%
5.5%
Friday 10 December 2021 13:30
4.9%
4.9%
Wednesday 10 November 2021 13:30
4.3%
4.6%
Wednesday 13 October 2021 12:30
4%
4%
Tuesday 14 September 2021 12:30
4.2%
4%
Wednesday 11 August 2021 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Tuesday 13 July 2021 12:30
4%
4.5%
Thursday 10 June 2021 12:30
3.4%
3.8%
Wednesday 12 May 2021 12:30
2.3%
3%
Tuesday 13 April 2021 12:30
1.5%
1.6%
Wednesday 10 March 2021 13:30
1.4%
1.3%
Wednesday 10 February 2021 13:30
1.5%
1.4%
Wednesday 13 January 2021 13:30
1.6%
1.6%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change61.369.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%2.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)4%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.7%62.8%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change150K199K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.2%7%
Unemployment RateBullish change3.9%3.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change218K220K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change36.836K45.51K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change4.7%5.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change-0.8%-1.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change106K103K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change50.250.7
ISM Services New Orders Index(no change)55.555.5
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.852.7
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change58.658.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change9.35M8.733M
S&P Global Composite PMI(no change)50.750.7
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change2.3%-3.6%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change46.845.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change45.548.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)46.746.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change45.149.9
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1%-1.5%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change4455.8
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.7%3.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change211K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.4%3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.7%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change4.9%5.2%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)3.5%3.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.9%2.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.6%0.6%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change8.6%-5.6%

About Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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