UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation

The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers includes a long-run, five-year, inflation expectation component that the Fed uses when calculating its quarterly Index of Common Inflation Expectations.

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Most recent - Friday 15 September 2023 14:00

Forecast

Actual

2.7%

Next event - Friday 29 September 2023 14:00

2.7%

Forecast

2.7%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation is 2.7%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation was 2.7%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Friday 15 September 2023 14:00

2.7%

Friday 25 August 2023 14:00

2.9%

Friday 11 August 2023 14:00

2.9%

Friday 28 July 2023 14:00

3.1%

Friday 14 July 2023 14:00

3.1%

Friday 30 June 2023 14:00

Friday 16 June 2023 14:00

3.1%

Friday 26 May 2023 14:00

3.1%

Friday 12 May 2023 14:00

3.2%

Friday 28 April 2023 14:00

Friday 14 April 2023 14:00

2.9%

Friday 31 March 2023 14:00

2.9%

Friday 17 March 2023 14:00

2.8%

Friday 24 February 2023 15:00

2.9%

Friday 10 February 2023 15:00

2.9%

Friday 27 January 2023 15:00

2.9%

Friday 13 January 2023 15:00

Friday 23 December 2022 15:00

2.9%

Friday 9 December 2022 15:00

Wednesday 23 November 2022 15:00

Friday 11 November 2022 15:00

Friday 28 October 2022 14:00

2.9%

Friday 14 October 2022 14:00

2.9%

Friday 30 September 2022 14:00

2.7%

Friday 16 September 2022 14:00

2.8%

Friday 26 August 2022 14:00

2.9%

Friday 12 August 2022 14:00

Friday 29 July 2022 14:00

2.9%

Friday 15 July 2022 14:00

2.8%

Friday 24 June 2022 14:00

3.1%

Friday 10 June 2022 14:00

3.3%

Friday 27 May 2022 14:00

Friday 13 May 2022 14:00

Friday 29 April 2022 14:00

Thursday 14 April 2022 14:00

Friday 25 March 2022 14:00

Friday 11 March 2022 15:00

Friday 25 February 2022 15:00

Friday 11 February 2022 15:00

3.1%

Friday 28 January 2022 15:00

3.1%

Friday 14 January 2022 15:00

3.1%

Thursday 23 December 2021 15:00

2.9%

Friday 10 December 2021 15:00

Wednesday 24 November 2021 15:00

Friday 12 November 2021 15:00

2.9%

Friday 29 October 2021 14:00

2.9%

Friday 15 October 2021 14:00

2.8%

Friday 1 October 2021 14:00

Friday 17 September 2021 14:00

2.9%

Friday 27 August 2021 14:00

2.9%

Friday 13 August 2021 14:00

Friday 30 July 2021 14:00

2.8%

Friday 16 July 2021 14:00

2.9%

Friday 25 June 2021 14:00

2.8%

Friday 11 June 2021 14:00

2.8%

Friday 28 May 2021 14:00

Friday 14 May 2021 14:00

3.1%

Friday 30 April 2021 14:00

2.7%

Friday 16 April 2021 14:00

2.7%

Friday 26 March 2021 14:00

2.7%

Friday 12 March 2021 15:00

2.7%

Friday 26 February 2021 15:00

2.7%

Friday 12 February 2021 15:00

2.7%

Friday 29 January 2021 15:00

2.7%

Friday 15 January 2021 15:00

2.7%

Wednesday 23 December 2020 15:00

2.5%

Friday 11 December 2020 15:00

2.5%

Wednesday 25 November 2020 15:00

2.5%

Friday 13 November 2020 15:00

2.6%

Friday 30 October 2020 14:00

2.4%

Friday 16 October 2020 14:00

2.4%

Friday 2 October 2020 14:00

2.7%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation result:

		Previous	Latest
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bearish change	50.2	50.1
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bullish change	47.9	48.9
S&P Global Services PMI	Bearish change	50.5	50.2
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bullish change	-2.2%	-0.7%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bullish change	221K	201K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey	Bearish change	12	-13.5
Fed Interest Rate Decision	(no change)	5.5%	5.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st year	Bullish change	4.6%	5.1%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year	Bullish change	3.4%	3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year	Bearish change	3.1%	2.9%
Interest Rate Projections - Current	(no change)	5.6%	5.6%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer	(no change)	2.5%	2.5%
Building Permits (MoM)	Bullish change	1.443M	1.543M
Housing Starts (MoM)	Bearish change	1.447M	1.283M
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bearish change	69.5	67.7
Industrial Production (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.4%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Bullish change	-19	1.9
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	217K	220K
Producer Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.4%	0.7%
Producer Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	0.8%	1.6%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)	Bearish change	2.4%	2.2%
Retail Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	0.5%	0.6%
Retail Sales Control Group	Bearish change	0.7%	0.1%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.6%
Monthly Budget Statement	Bullish change	$-221B	$89B
Consumer Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.2%	0.6%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	3.2%	3.7%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)	Bullish change	0.2%	0.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)	Bearish change	4.7%	4.3%

About UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	University of Michigan
Category:	Consumption
Frequency:	Monthly

Related events

	Australia		Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
	Canada		Retail Sales (MoM)
	China		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (YoY)
	New Zealand		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	United States		Retail Sales (MoM)
	United States		Retail Sales Control Group
	Australia		Westpac Consumer Confidence
	Australia		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	Canada		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	Switzerland		Real Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Germany		Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
	Eurozone		Consumer Confidence
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Japan		Large Retailer Sales
	Japan		Overall Household Spending (YoY)
	Japan		Retail Trade s.a (MoM)
	Japan		Retail Trade (YoY)
	New Zealand		ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
	New Zealand		Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)
	New Zealand		Westpac Consumer Survey
	United Kingdom		BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)
	United Kingdom		GfK Consumer Confidence
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (MoM)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (YoY)
	United States		Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
	United States		Consumer Confidence
	United States		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	United States		Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)
	United States		Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)
	United States		Personal Spending

Calendar - UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation - United States

UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation

Most recent - Friday 15 September 2023 14:00

Next event - Friday 29 September 2023 14:00

Trading range

Trading range after each UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation

Related events