Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator has the ability to account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve and it's released by the Commerce Department.

Most recent - Wednesday 30 September 2026 12:30

Previous
3.7%
Revised
3.4%
Forecast
3.7%
Actual
3.4%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Thursday 29 October 2026 12:30

Previous
3.4%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) was 3.4% against a forecast of 3.7%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 30 September 2026 12:30
3.7%
3.4%
Wednesday 26 August 2026 12:30
3.6%
3.7%
Thursday 30 July 2026 12:30
3.7%
3.7%
Thursday 25 June 2026 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Thursday 28 May 2026 12:30
3.8%
3.8%
Thursday 30 April 2026 12:30
3.5%
3.5%
Thursday 9 April 2026 12:30
2.8%
2.8%
Friday 13 March 2026 12:30
2.9%
2.8%
Friday 20 February 2026 13:30
2.8%
2.9%
Thursday 22 January 2026 15:00
2.8%
2.8%
Thursday 22 January 2026 15:00
-
2.7%
Friday 5 December 2025 15:00
2.8%
2.8%
Friday 26 September 2025 12:30
2.7%
2.7%
Friday 29 August 2025 12:30
2.6%
2.6%
Thursday 31 July 2025 12:30
2.5%
2.6%
Friday 27 June 2025 12:30
2.3%
2.3%
Friday 30 May 2025 12:30
2.2%
2.1%
Wednesday 30 April 2025 14:00
2.2%
2.3%
Friday 28 March 2025 12:30
2.5%
2.5%
Friday 28 February 2025 13:30
2.5%
2.5%
Friday 31 January 2025 13:30
2.6%
2.6%
Friday 20 December 2024 13:30
2.5%
2.4%
Wednesday 27 November 2024 15:00
2.3%
2.3%
Thursday 31 October 2024 12:30
2.1%
2.1%
Friday 27 September 2024 12:30
2.3%
2.2%
Friday 30 August 2024 12:30
2.6%
2.5%
Friday 26 July 2024 12:30
2.5%
2.5%
Friday 28 June 2024 12:30
2.6%
2.6%
Friday 31 May 2024 12:30
2.7%
2.7%
Friday 26 April 2024 12:30
2.6%
2.7%
Friday 29 March 2024 12:30
2.5%
2.5%
Thursday 29 February 2024 13:30
2.4%
2.4%
Friday 26 January 2024 13:30
2.6%
2.6%
Friday 22 December 2023 13:30
2.8%
2.6%
Thursday 30 November 2023 13:30
3%
3%
Friday 27 October 2023 12:30
3.4%
3.4%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
Monthly Budget StatementBullish change$-166.8B$-27B
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change198K199K
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBullish change7.625.5
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change37.820.9
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.5%1.3%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change5.6%6.3%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.7%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change4.8%5%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.3%0.8%
Retail Sales Control GroupBearish change1.2%0.1%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change1.4%0.9%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.4%0.6%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.4%3.7%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.6%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-3.2%1.5%
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBearish change25.25K24.75K
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change46.347.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change48.146.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.6%4.7%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.4%3.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change199K197K
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change22.5K23.75K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change47.850.1
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change60.959.8
ISM Services PMIBearish change55.454.9
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change72.674
S&P Global Composite PMI(no change)58.458.4

About Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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