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ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.

Most recent - Friday 1 March 2024 15:00

Previous
49.1
Revised
-
Forecast
49.5
Actual
47.8

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Monday 1 April 2024 14:00

Previous
47.8
Forecast
48
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for ISM Manufacturing PMI is 48. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ISM Manufacturing PMI was 47.8 against a forecast of 49.5.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 1 March 2024 15:00
49.5
47.8
Thursday 1 February 2024 15:00
47
49.1
Wednesday 3 January 2024 15:00
47.1
47.4
Friday 1 December 2023 15:00
47.6
46.7
Wednesday 1 November 2023 14:00
49
46.7
Monday 2 October 2023 14:00
47.7
49
Friday 1 September 2023 14:00
47
47.6
Tuesday 1 August 2023 14:00
46.8
46.4
Monday 3 July 2023 14:00
47.2
46
Thursday 1 June 2023 14:00
47
46.9
Monday 1 May 2023 14:00
46.6
47.1
Monday 3 April 2023 14:00
47.5
46.3
Wednesday 1 March 2023 15:00
48
47.7
Wednesday 1 February 2023 15:00
48
47.4
Wednesday 4 January 2023 15:00
48.5
48.4
Thursday 1 December 2022 15:00
49.8
49
Tuesday 1 November 2022 14:00
50
50.2
Monday 3 October 2022 14:00
52.2
50.9
Thursday 1 September 2022 14:00
52
52.8
Monday 1 August 2022 14:00
52
52.8
Friday 1 July 2022 14:00
54.9
53
Wednesday 1 June 2022 14:00
54.5
56.1
Monday 2 May 2022 14:00
57.6
55.4
Friday 1 April 2022 14:00
59
57.1
Tuesday 1 March 2022 15:00
58
58.6
Tuesday 1 February 2022 15:00
57.5
57.6
Tuesday 4 January 2022 15:00
60
58.7
Wednesday 1 December 2021 15:00
61
61.1
Monday 1 November 2021 14:00
60.6
60.8
Friday 1 October 2021 14:00
59.6
61.1
Wednesday 1 September 2021 14:00
58.6
59.9
Monday 2 August 2021 14:00
60.9
59.5
Thursday 1 July 2021 14:00
61
60.6
Tuesday 1 June 2021 14:00
60.7
61.2
Monday 3 May 2021 14:00
65
60.7
Thursday 1 April 2021 14:00
61.3
64.7

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change76.579.4
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-4.9%1.6%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change2.9%2.8%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change4441.4
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.1%2%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change3.2%3.4%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)1.7%1.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change212K210K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)1.8%1.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.1%-0.1%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-6.9%1.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-7.9%2.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change-0.3%0.5%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.4%0.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change1.7%-0.3%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change3.1%9.5%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change52.552.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change52.252.5
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change52.351.7
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change212K210K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change5.23.2
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)5.5%5.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBearish change4.6%3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBearish change3.6%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - CurrentBearish change5.4%4.6%
Interest Rate Projections - LongerBullish change2.5%2.6%
Building Permits (MoM)Bullish change1.489M1.518M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.374M1.521M
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change76.976.5
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)2.9%2.9%
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change-0.5%0.1%
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change-2.4-20.9

About ISM Manufacturing PMI

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Institute for Supply Management
Category:Economic Activity
Frequency:Monthly

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