Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 16 September 2026 18:00

Previous
3.75%
Forecast
4%
Actual
4%

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4% against a forecast of 4%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 16 September 2026 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 29 July 2026 18:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 17 June 2026 18:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 29 April 2026 18:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 18 March 2026 18:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 28 January 2026 19:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 10 December 2025 19:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 29 October 2025 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 17 September 2025 18:00
4.25%
4.25%
Wednesday 30 July 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 June 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 7 May 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change0.8%0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change3.1%3%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change61.6%61.8%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change133K29K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.7%7.6%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.1%4.2%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change51.252.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change53.755.3
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change54.654.5
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change71.177.9
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change198K197K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change52.881K43.281K
Chicago PMIBullish change47.158.8
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)3%3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change3.6%3.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change1.5%2.2%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change6.4%6.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)3.4%3.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change5.3%5%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.1%0.9%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change36K90K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.335M7.079M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.3%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change45.846.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change47.848.1
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations(no change)4.6%4.6%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3.4%3.4%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change0.9%0%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change1.4%0.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.7%0.3%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change0.6%1.6%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-4.3%6.4%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change198K197K
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change5658.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change53.957
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change56.558.7
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change16.75K20K

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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