Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00

Previous
5%
Forecast
4.75%
Actual
4.75%

Next event - Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Fed Interest Rate Decision yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4.75% against a forecast of 4.75%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
Wednesday 1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%
Wednesday 27 July 2022 18:00
2.5%
2.5%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
1.5%
1.75%
Wednesday 4 May 2022 18:00
1%
1%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00
0.5%
0.5%
Wednesday 26 January 2022 19:00
0.25%
0.25%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00
0.25%
0.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change71.874
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%3.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)4%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.6%62.5%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change36K227K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.7%7.8%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.1%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change215K224K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change55.597K57.727K
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change5351.5
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change57.453.7
ISM Services PMIBearish change5652.1
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change58.158.2
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change55.354.9
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change184K146K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.372M7.744M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change44.448.1
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change47.150.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change46.548.4
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change54.850.3
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.7%2.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.1%2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.6%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.6%0.4%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change7.5%2%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change41.640.2
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.2%2.1%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-0.4%0.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-0.9%0.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.4%0.1%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized(no change)2.8%2.8%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change1.8%1.9%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.3%-0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)1.5%1.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change215K213K
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change7%-17.3%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.4%0.7%

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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