ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for ADP Employment Change is 115K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

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Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

About ADP Employment Change

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