ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15

Previous
60K
Revised
60K
Forecast
115K
Actual
37K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 2 July 2025 12:15

Previous
37K
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 37K against a forecast of 115K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15
115K
37K
Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15
108K
62K
Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15
105K
155K
Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15
140K
77K
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-6.3%1.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change3.4%3.5%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-6.6%16.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-7.7%15.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0%0.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change-0.2%-0.5%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change3.7%3.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change245K236K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-1.4%1.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change3.6%3.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change9.6%-13.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0%-0.4%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-0.5%0.8%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change5352.8
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(no change)5252
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change53.753.1
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(no change)-4-4
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change3.4%3.6%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBullish change3.1%3.4%
Interest Rate Projections - Current(no change)3.9%3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)3%3%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.422M1.393M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bearish change1.392M1.256M
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change250K245K
Industrial Production (MoM)Bearish change0.1%-0.2%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change-0.1%-0.9%
Retail Sales Control GroupBullish change-0.1%0.4%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change0%-0.3%
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change-9.2-16
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change47.958.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change52.260.5
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change6.6%5.1%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change4.2%4.1%

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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