ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations

ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Most recent - Thursday 30 January 2025 13:15

Previous
3.15%
Forecast
2.9%
Actual
2.9%

Next event - Thursday 6 March 2025 13:15

Previous
2.9%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on EUR pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations was 2.9% against a forecast of 2.9%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 30 January 2025 13:15
2.9%
2.9%
Thursday 12 December 2024 13:15
3.15%
3.15%
Thursday 17 October 2024 12:15
3.4%
3.4%
Thursday 12 September 2024 12:15
3.65%
3.65%
Thursday 18 July 2024 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
Thursday 6 June 2024 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
Thursday 11 April 2024 12:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 March 2024 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 25 January 2024 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 14 December 2023 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 26 October 2023 12:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 14 September 2023 12:15
4.25%
4.5%
Thursday 27 July 2023 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
Thursday 15 June 2023 12:15
4%
4%
Thursday 4 May 2023 12:15
3.75%
3.75%
Thursday 16 March 2023 13:15
3.5%
3.5%
Thursday 2 February 2023 13:15
3%
3%
Thursday 15 December 2022 13:15
2.5%
2.5%
Thursday 27 October 2022 12:15
2%
2%
Thursday 8 September 2022 12:15
1.25%
1.25%
Thursday 21 July 2022 12:15
0.25%
0.5%
Thursday 9 June 2022 11:45
0%
0%
Thursday 14 April 2022 11:45
0%
0%
Thursday 10 March 2022 12:45
0%
0%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations result:

PreviousLatest
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.4%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.3%2.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.6%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)(no change)1.7%1.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change1.5%1.7%
Unemployment ChangeBullish change11K5K
Unemployment Rate s.a.(no change)6.2%6.2%
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)Bearish change1.8%0.9%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bullish change-1.6%0.2%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bullish change1.8%2.9%
Business ClimateBullish change-0.92-0.74
Consumer Confidence(no change)-13.6-13.6
Economic Sentiment IndicatorBullish change95.396.3
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.9%2.9%
GfK Consumer Confidence SurveyBearish change-22.4-24.7
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(no change)-0.2%-0.2%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(no change)-0.2%-0.2%
Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)(no change)-0.4%-0.4%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change-1%-0.9%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.7%2.7%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)-0.3%-0.3%
IFO – Business Climate(no change)85.285.2
IFO – Current AssessmentBearish change8685
IFO – ExpectationsBullish change84.385.4
HCOB Composite PMI(no change)50.250.2
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change46.647.3
HCOB Services PMIBearish change51.350.7
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)(no change)1.7%1.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)1.5%1.5%
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change50.551
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change4546.1
HCOB Services PMIBearish change52.552.2
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change47.644.5
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change4545.5
HCOB Services PMIBearish change48.244.5
Consumer ConfidenceBullish change-14.2-13.6
Producer Price Index (MoM)(no change)-0.1%-0.1%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change0.8%0.5%
ZEW Survey – Current SituationBullish change-90.4-88.5
ZEW Survey – Economic SentimentBullish change10.326
ZEW Survey – Economic SentimentBullish change1824.2
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)(no change)1.8%1.8%

About ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations

Country:Eurozone
Currency:EUR
Source:European Central Bank
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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