Employment Cost Index

The Employment Cost Index (ECI), released by US Bureau of Labour Statistics, is a quarterly measure of the change in the price of labor, defined as compensation per employee hour worked. Closely watched by many economists, the ECI is an indicator of cost pressures within companies that could lead to price inflation for finished goods and services. The index measures changes in the cost of compensation not only for wages and salaries, but also for an extensive list of benefits.

Most recent - Thursday 31 July 2025 12:30

Previous
0.9%
Revised
-
Forecast
0.8%
Actual
0.9%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Employment Cost Index was 0.9% against a forecast of 0.8%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 31 July 2025 12:30
0.8%
0.9%
Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:30
0.9%
0.9%
Friday 31 January 2025 13:30
0.9%
0.9%
Thursday 31 October 2024 12:30
0.9%
0.8%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:30
1%
0.9%
Tuesday 30 April 2024 12:30
1%
1.2%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:30
1%
0.9%
Tuesday 31 October 2023 12:30
1%
1.1%
Friday 28 July 2023 12:30
1.1%
1%
Friday 28 April 2023 12:30
1.1%
1.2%
Tuesday 31 January 2023 13:30
1.1%
1%
Friday 28 October 2022 12:30
1.2%
1.2%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Employment Cost Index result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change58.657.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change61.861.7
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.4%4.5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.6%3.4%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4543.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.447.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change4948
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change69.764.8
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.8%3.9%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.3%62.2%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change14K73K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.7%7.9%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.1%4.2%
Chicago PMIBullish change40.447.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change217K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change-0.4%0.3%
Personal SpendingBullish change0%0.3%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change47.999K62.075K
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.8%-0.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change3.5%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change-0.5%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change3.8%2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change3.7%2.1%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change-23K104K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.771M7.437M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%-0.2%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change16.5%-9.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change15.7%-9.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.6%0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change2%-0.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-11.6%0.6%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.954.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change5249.5
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change52.955.2
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change221K217K
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change1%-2.7%

About Employment Cost Index

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Quarterly
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