Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

Most recent - Tuesday 16 September 2025 12:30

Previous
0.6%
Revised
0.6%
Forecast
0.2%
Actual
0.6%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Thursday 16 October 2025 12:30

Previous
0.6%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Retail Sales (MoM) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (MoM) was 0.6% against a forecast of 0.2%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 16 September 2025 12:30
0.2%
0.6%
Friday 15 August 2025 12:30
0.5%
0.5%
Thursday 17 July 2025 12:30
0.1%
0.6%
Tuesday 17 June 2025 12:30
-0.7%
-0.9%
Thursday 15 May 2025 12:30
0%
0.1%
Wednesday 16 April 2025 12:30
1.3%
1.4%
Monday 17 March 2025 12:30
0.7%
0.2%
Friday 14 February 2025 13:30
-0.1%
-0.9%
Thursday 16 January 2025 13:30
0.6%
0.4%
Tuesday 17 December 2024 13:30
0.5%
0.7%
Friday 15 November 2024 13:30
0.3%
0.4%
Thursday 17 October 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.4%
Tuesday 17 September 2024 12:30
-0.2%
0.1%
Thursday 15 August 2024 12:30
0.3%
1%
Tuesday 16 July 2024 12:30
0%
0%
Tuesday 18 June 2024 12:30
0.2%
0.1%
Wednesday 15 May 2024 12:30
0.4%
0%
Monday 15 April 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.7%
Thursday 14 March 2024 12:30
0.8%
0.6%
Thursday 15 February 2024 13:30
-0.1%
-0.8%
Wednesday 17 January 2024 13:30
0.4%
0.6%
Thursday 14 December 2023 13:30
-0.1%
0.3%
Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30
-0.3%
-0.1%
Tuesday 17 October 2023 12:30
0.3%
0.7%
Thursday 14 September 2023 12:30
0.2%
0.6%
Tuesday 15 August 2023 12:30
0.4%
0.7%
Tuesday 18 July 2023 12:30
0.5%
0.2%
Thursday 15 June 2023 12:30
-0.1%
0.3%
Tuesday 16 May 2023 12:30
0.7%
0.4%
Friday 14 April 2023 12:30
-0.4%
-1%
Wednesday 15 March 2023 12:30
-0.3%
-0.4%
Wednesday 15 February 2023 13:30
1.8%
3%
Wednesday 18 January 2023 13:30
-0.8%
-1.1%
Thursday 15 December 2022 13:30
-0.1%
-0.6%
Wednesday 16 November 2022 13:30
1%
1.3%
Friday 14 October 2022 12:30
0.2%
0%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (MoM) result:

PreviousLatest
Challenger Job CutsBearish change85.979K54.064K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.845.3
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change51.448.9
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.749.1
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change63.761.9
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change-3K-32K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.208M7.227M
Chicago PMIBearish change41.540.6
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%-0.1%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change51.851.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change55.455.1
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change4.8%4.7%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.9%3.7%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.9%2.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Income (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.5%0.6%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change2%-0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.5%2.6%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-2.7%2.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-2.5%1.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change1%0.4%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change3.3%3.8%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change2%2.1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change232K218K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.8%0.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change2%2.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-1.8%20.5%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.653.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change5352
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change54.553.9

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Census Bureau
Category:Consumption
Frequency:Monthly
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