Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)
Most recent - Friday 19 December 2025 07:00
Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/GBP pairs and bearish for GBP/xxx pairs.
Next event - Friday 23 January 2026 07:00
The typical/expected impact on GBP pairs is medium.
The consensus forecast for Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) is 1.4%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for GBP/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/GBP pairs.
Trading range
Forecast history
The most recent announced value for Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) was 1.2% against a forecast of 1.6%.
Past events
Economic context
Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for GBP. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) result:
| Previous | Latest | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (MoM) | Bullish change | -0.2% | 0.4% | ||
| Consumer Price Index (YoY) | Bullish change | 3.2% | 3.4% | ||
| Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) | (no change) | 3.2% | 3.2% | ||
| PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a | Bearish change | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||
| PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a | Bearish change | 3.6% | 3.2% | ||
| Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a | Bearish change | 0.1% | 0% | ||
| Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a | (no change) | 3.4% | 3.4% | ||
| Retail Price Index (MoM) | Bullish change | -0.4% | 0.7% | ||
| Retail Price Index (YoY) | Bullish change | 3.8% | 4.2% | ||
| Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | Bearish change | 4.6% | 4.5% | ||
| Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | Bearish change | 4.8% | 4.7% | ||
| Claimant Count Change | Bearish change | -3.3K | 17.9K | ||
| Claimant Count Rate | Bearish change | 4.3% | 4.4% | ||
| Employment Change (3M) | Bullish change | -17K | 82K | ||
| ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) | (no change) | 5.1% | 5.1% | ||
| Gross Domestic Product (MoM) | Bullish change | -0.1% | 0.3% | ||
| Industrial Production (MoM) | Bearish change | 1.3% | 1.1% | ||
| Manufacturing Production (MoM) | Bullish change | 0.4% | 2.1% | ||
| BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) | Bearish change | 1.2% | 1% |
About Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)
| Country: | United Kingdom |
|---|---|
| Currency: | GBP |
| Source: | Office for National Statistics |
| Category: | Consumption |
| Frequency: | Monthly |
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