Trade Balance EUR

The Trade Balance released by MINEFA is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. A steady demand for French exports would turn into positive growth in the trade balance, which should be positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Next event - Friday 7 August 2026 06:45

Previous
€-6.928B
Forecast
€-6.5B
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

The consensus forecast for Trade Balance EUR is €-6.5B. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for EUR/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/EUR pairs.

Most recent - Tuesday 7 July 2026 06:45

Previous
€-5.6B
Revised
-
Forecast
€-5.2B
Actual
€-6.9B

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/EUR pairs and bearish for EUR/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Trade Balance EUR was €-6.9B against a forecast of €-5.2B.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 7 July 2026 06:45
€-5.2B
€-6.9B
Friday 5 June 2026 06:45
€-6.5B
€-5.6B
Thursday 7 May 2026 06:45
€-5.6B
€-6.864B
Wednesday 8 April 2026 06:45
€-2.3B
€-5.778B
Tuesday 10 March 2026 07:45
€-4.6B
€-1.8B
Friday 6 February 2026 07:45
€-4.1B
€-4.8B
Thursday 8 January 2026 07:45
€-4.2B
€-4.2B
Friday 5 December 2025 07:45
-
€-3.92B
Friday 7 November 2025 07:45
€-5.9B
€-6.58B
Tuesday 7 October 2025 06:45
€-5.2B
€-5.529B
Friday 5 September 2025 06:45
€-6.1B
€-5.6B
Thursday 7 August 2025 06:45
€-7.5B
€-7.632B
Tuesday 8 July 2025 06:45
€-7.7B
€-7.766B
Friday 6 June 2025 06:45
€-6B
€-7.968B
Wednesday 7 May 2025 06:45
€-6.9B
€-6.248B
Tuesday 8 April 2025 06:45
€-5.4B
€-7.87B
Friday 7 March 2025 07:45
€-4.1B
€-6.54B
Friday 7 February 2025 07:45
€-5.3B
€-3.905B
Wednesday 8 January 2025 07:45
€-7B
€-7.085B
Friday 6 December 2024 07:45
€-8B
€-7.666B
Friday 8 November 2024 07:45
€-6.5B
€-8.266B
Tuesday 8 October 2024 06:45
€-5.5B
€-7.371B
Friday 6 September 2024 06:45
€-5.5B
€-5.884B
Wednesday 7 August 2024 06:45
-
€-6.088B
Friday 5 July 2024 06:45
€-7.2B
€-7.987B
Friday 7 June 2024 06:45
€-5.4B
€-7.579B
Tuesday 7 May 2024 06:45
€-5B
€-5.473B
Tuesday 9 April 2024 06:45
€-7B
€-5.244B
Friday 8 March 2024 07:45
-
€-7.388B
Wednesday 7 February 2024 07:45
€-6B
€-6.829B
Tuesday 9 January 2024 07:45
€-7.9B
€-5.943B
Thursday 7 December 2023 07:45
€-8.5B
€-8.597B
Wednesday 8 November 2023 07:45
€-8.1B
€-8.917B
Friday 6 October 2023 06:45
€-8.9B
€-8.202B
Thursday 7 September 2023 06:45
€-6.8B
€-8.089B
Tuesday 8 August 2023 06:45
€-8B
€-6.713B

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Trade Balance EUR result:

PreviousLatest
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.4%-0.3%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change1.9%0.7%
Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)Bullish change4.5%6.5%
Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)Bullish change0.3%3.1%
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%-0.3%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change5.9%4.6%
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change51.952
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change51.251.3
HCOB Services PMIBullish change49.649.8
HCOB Services PMIBullish change54.258.3
HCOB Manufacturing PMI(no change)52.252.2
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change52.251.3
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change49.750.2
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.2%-1.1%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change2.1%-0.2%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.5%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change-0.1%0.2%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.8%2.9%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)Bearish change3%2.9%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3%2.8%
Unemployment ChangeBearish change-1K6K
Unemployment Rate s.a.Bearish change6.3%6.4%
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)Bullish change2%2.4%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%0.8%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.3%2.8%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.9%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.8%
Business ClimateBullish change-0.36-0.19
Consumer Confidence(no change)-15.9-15.9
Economic Sentiment IndicatorBullish change95.496.9
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)Bullish change-0.2%0.4%
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)Bullish change0.3%1%
Unemployment Rate(no change)6.3%6.3%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bullish change0.4%0.9%
Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)Bullish change0.5%0.9%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bullish change0.8%1%
Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)Bullish change0.6%0.7%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change3.6%3.8%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bullish change-0.1%0.2%
IFO – Business ClimateBullish change85.786.6
IFO – Current AssessmentBearish change8786.5
IFO – ExpectationsBullish change84.386.7
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change5051.9
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change51.452
HCOB Services PMIBullish change49.451.6
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change49.551.2
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change50.352.2
HCOB Services PMIBullish change48.649.6
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change47.249.6
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change51.250
HCOB Services PMIBullish change46.849.8
GfK Consumer Confidence SurveyBearish change-29.3-29.6

About Trade Balance EUR

Country:France
Currency:EUR
Source:Ministry of Economics, Finance and the Relaunch of France
Category:Capital Flows
Frequency:Monthly
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