Global Trade Balance

The Trade Balance released by the National Institute of Statistics is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the Euro. If a steady demand in exchange for Italian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive (or bullish) for the common currency.

Next event - Tuesday 15 September 2026 08:00

Previous
€4.232B
Forecast
€4.77B
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

The consensus forecast for Global Trade Balance is €4.77B. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for EUR/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/EUR pairs.

Most recent - Tuesday 11 August 2026 08:00

Previous
€4.793B
Revised
€4.946B
Forecast
€4.74B
Actual
€4.232B

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/EUR pairs and bearish for EUR/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Global Trade Balance was €4.232B against a forecast of €4.74B.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 11 August 2026 08:00
€4.74B
€4.232B
Thursday 16 July 2026 09:00
€4.5B
€4.793B
Monday 15 June 2026 08:00
€5.19B
€4.293B
Monday 18 May 2026 08:00
€5.2B
€4.709B
Friday 17 April 2026 08:00
€3.83B
€4.944B
Friday 20 March 2026 09:00
€5.6B
€1.089B
Tuesday 17 February 2026 09:00
€4.5B
€6.037B
Thursday 15 January 2026 11:00
€5.2B
€5.078B
Tuesday 16 December 2025 10:00
€3.22B
€4.156B
Friday 14 November 2025 09:00
€3.2B
€2.852B
Thursday 16 October 2025 09:00
€7.55B
€2.05B
Monday 15 September 2025 08:00
€5.5B
€7.908B
Monday 11 August 2025 09:00
€7.12B
€5.409B
Wednesday 16 July 2025 09:00
€2.87B
€6.163B
Friday 13 June 2025 08:00
€2.75B
€2.482B
Friday 16 May 2025 09:00
€5.2B
€3.657B
Friday 18 April 2025 08:00
€3.31B
€4.466B
Tuesday 18 March 2025 09:00
€5.15B
€-0.264B
Monday 17 February 2025 09:00
€4.35B
€5.98B
Thursday 16 January 2025 10:00
€4.5B
€4.218B
Tuesday 17 December 2024 09:00
€3.22B
€5.153B
Friday 15 November 2024 10:00
€2.55B
€2.58B
Thursday 17 October 2024 09:00
€5.55B
€1.431B
Monday 16 September 2024 09:00
€4.5B
€6.743B
Friday 9 August 2024 09:00
€5.55B
€5.065B
Tuesday 16 July 2024 09:00
€3.55B
€6.43B
Friday 14 June 2024 08:00
€4.25B
€4.807B
Thursday 16 May 2024 09:00
€4.77B
€4.341B
Tuesday 16 April 2024 09:00
€3.44B
€6.034B
Friday 15 March 2024 11:00
-
€2.655B
Thursday 15 February 2024 09:00
€3.65B
€5.614B
Monday 15 January 2024 09:00
-
€3.889B
Friday 15 December 2023 10:00
-
€4.699B
Thursday 16 November 2023 09:00
€3.45B
€2.35B
Wednesday 18 October 2023 08:00
€6.05B
€2.07B

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Global Trade Balance result:

PreviousLatest
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.9%2.9%
Trade Balance s.a.Bullish change€15.4B€21.3B
Employment Change (QoQ)(no change)0.1%0.1%
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)Bullish change0.4%0.6%
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)Bullish change1%1.2%
Sentix Investor ConfidenceBullish change0.95.1
Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)Bearish change-0.5%-1.6%
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)Bearish change0%-1.1%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.2%-0.6%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change1.4%0.6%
Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)Bullish change7.2%13.1%
Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)Bearish change3.7%2.5%
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%1.6%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change4.6%5.8%
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change52.152
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change5151.8
HCOB Services PMIBullish change48.549.7
HCOB Services PMIBearish change58.357.8
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change0%0.2%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2.5%2.4%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.9%3.3%
Unemployment Rate(no change)6.4%6.4%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)Bullish change2.9%3.2%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.9%3.3%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(no change)1%1%
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change54.154.3
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change51.349.6
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change50.249.5
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0%-3.4%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change0.6%-2.5%

About Global Trade Balance

Country:Italy
Currency:EUR
Source:ISTAT
Category:Capital Flows
Frequency:Monthly
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