

Gold and Oil Surge: Will US Jobs Data Guide the Fed’s Next Rate Move?

Markets begin the week with tension building across commodities and rates. Gold remains elevated above $5,300 as geopolitical uncertainty sustains safe-haven demand, while crude oil trades within a $72–$79 range, reflecting embedded supply disruption risk tied to Middle East developments. The key catalyst now shifts to US labour data. February Nonfarm Payrolls are projected at 58K–60K, down sharply from the previous 130K print. A slowdown would reinforce expectations for mid-year rate cuts. However, wage growth remains sticky, with the prior reading at 0.4% month-on-month. If earnings stay firm while oil remains elevated, inflation expectations could re-accelerate — complicating the Federal Reserve’s path. Oil is the wildcard. A sustained move above $80 would tighten financial conditions and potentially revive inflation concerns, even if employment data softens. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index continues to range below 98.50, with direction likely hinging on payrolls and wage momentum. Across assets, positioning remains sensitive. Gold could extend toward 5,455 if the dollar stays contained. Equities face pressure if energy costs remain elevated. Volatility is building into Friday’s data release, where markets must reconcile cooling job growth with persistent inflation inputs. Explore how gold, oil, payroll data and Fed expectations could reshape cross-asset volatility and what critical levels traders are monitoring this week.

Learn more

Publication date:

2026-03-02 07:00:38 (GMT)

The terms and conditions of use set out below (referred to as "FX Blue's Terms"), form a contractual agreement governing FX Blue's relationship with you in relation to your use of this Website (“Agreement”) and you agree to be legally bound by FX Blue's Terms just as if you had signed this Agreement. By using this Website and any Information, you are agreeing to comply with and be bound by FX Blue's Terms, including any revisions that may be made to FX Blue's Terms from time to time. FX Blue reserves the right, in FX Blue's sole discretion, to change, modify, add or remove portions of FX Blue's Terms at any time by posting the revisions on the Website. You should check FX Blue's Terms periodically for changes as by using the Website after FX Blue posts any changes to FX Blue's Terms, you are agreeing to accept those changes, whether or not you have reviewed them, and you waive any right you may have to receive individualised notice of such changes. FX Blue's Terms may be supplemented by additional terms and conditions pertaining to specific content and activities. You agree and understand that such additional terms and conditions are hereby incorporated by reference to FX Blue's Terms. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified FX Blue Terms.