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Nebius Shares Drop 17% Despite Record Q3 Revenue

Key Takeaways -Nebius shares closed at $128.64, down 16.84% on 12 November following its third-quarter earnings release. -Q3 revenue surged 571% year-on-year to $980.8 million, exceeding the approximately $907.5 million market estimate. -Nebius expects 2026 revenue to reach the lower end of its previous $3.0–$3.4 billion guidance after some third-party data-centre capacity was delayed until the first half of 2027. -The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to approximately $27 billion, above its previous $20–$25 billion range. -Traders are watching $130 resistance and $120 support, while the 4H chart shows NBIS trading below its 50 EMA at $162.64, with RSI at 40.92. Nebius shares came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday, falling 16.84% to close at $128.64 despite reporting record third-quarter revenue. The decline reflected investor concerns over delayed data-centre capacity, a lower-end revenue outlook and rising investment requirements. The AI cloud company reported Q3 revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% year-on-year and above market expectations of approximately $907.5 million. However, investors focused on the timing of future growth and the substantial capital required to expand its AI infrastructure operations. Why Traders Are Watching Nebius The main concern is whether Nebius can deliver its planned infrastructure expansion quickly enough to support its revenue targets. The company said some third-party data-centre capacity originally expected to become available in 2026 has been pushed into the first half of 2027. As a result, Nebius now expects 2026 revenue to reach the lower end of its previous $3.0–$3.4 billion guidance range. Although adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $465.8 million, the revised timeline raised questions about the pace of its expansion. Capital expenditure has also increased significantly. Nebius now expects approximately $27 billion in 2026 capital expenditure, compared with its previous forecast of $20–$25 billion. Its initial 2027 outlook includes capital spending of $40–$45 billion alongside a revenue target of $12–$13 billion. These investment plans have shifted attention towards funding requirements, execution risks and the timing of profitability. Nebius expects to reach pre-tax breakeven by the fourth quarter of 2027. The reaction also spread across other AI infrastructure stocks, including CoreWeave and IREN, highlighting broader investor concerns over the cost of expanding AI computing capacity. Key factors influencing Nebius's outlook include: -Data-Centre Expansion: Whether delayed third-party capacity becomes operational during the first half of 2027 as expected. -Capital Expenditure: Whether rising infrastructure spending can translate into sustained revenue growth and improved returns. -Revenue Guidance: Whether Nebius can meet its revised 2026 outlook and deliver its initial 2027 revenue target. -Profitability Timeline: Whether the company can achieve its expected pre-tax breakeven target by the fourth quarter of 2027. -AI Infrastructure Sentiment: Whether investor confidence in AI infrastructure companies improves as markets assess their spending requirements and growth potential. Key Trading Levels NBIS is trading around $128.86 on the supplied 4H chart, well below its 50 EMA at $162.64 following the sharp decline from its September and October highs. The recent rebound has failed to recover the moving average, leaving the broader short-term price structure under pressure. The RSI (14) stands at 40.92, below the neutral 50 level but above the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests that selling momentum has eased from earlier levels, although buying pressure remains relatively weak. Immediate support sits at $120, while resistance is around $130. A sustained break above $130 could indicate that buyers are beginning to absorb the post-earnings selling, bringing the 50 EMA at $162.64 into focus as a wider recovery reference. Conversely, a break below $120 could expose the recent low at $113.37, potentially extending the downward move. Bottom Line Nebius's next move may depend on whether the company can turn strong AI infrastructure demand into sustained revenue growth while managing its rising investment requirements. Delayed data-centre capacity and higher capital expenditure could continue to weigh on sentiment, while progress towards its expansion and profitability targets may help restore investor confidence. For a closer look at the broader AI infrastructure sector and its market developments, read the full article in the "learn more" button below.

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Publication date:

2026-11-13 08:43:44 (GMT)

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