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S&P 500 Tries to Hold Gains as Oil Risk Returns

The S&P 500 opened the week on firmer ground, but the market still looked careful rather than fully confident. After last week’s strong rebound, investors were willing to protect some of those gains, though not enough to move decisively back into risk. The index traded at 6585.98, up 15.57 points or 0.24%, after rising nearly 6% last week, its strongest weekly gain since late November. Early futures trading reflected that more guarded tone, with Dow futures down 105 points or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures down 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%. Reports that US, Iranian and regional mediators were discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire helped improve sentiment after an early dip, but not enough to convince markets that the risk had materially eased. Investors are still looking at a backdrop where shipping routes, energy flows and military threats remain unresolved. That has made it difficult to treat diplomatic headlines as a lasting turning point, especially when the wider market remains so sensitive to oil. Trump’s warning that Tuesday would be “Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day” in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened added another layer of pressure. A fixed deadline like that leaves little room for complacency. Traders are not only watching whether talks continue, but whether visible progress arrives quickly enough to avoid another escalation and another move higher in crude. The latest jobs report also added to that mixed picture. March payrolls rose by 178,000, well above the 59,000 consensus, which helped ease concerns about a sharper slowdown in growth. At the same time, stronger labour data makes it harder to rebuild the case for quicker Fed rate cuts. That leaves equities balancing two forces at once. The economy looks firmer than feared, which helps earnings expectations, but the same data also makes the policy backdrop less supportive if it keeps yields firm and rate cuts further away. Technically, the index still looks like a market trying to stabilise after a sharp setback, rather than one that has fully regained upside momentum. Price has recovered from the 6318 low, but the broader structure still reflects the earlier loss of momentum from the 7017 high. Discover how ceasefire hopes, oil risk and stronger payrolls are shaping the next move in the S&P 500.

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Publication date:

2026-04-06 19:44:24 (GMT)

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