

Fed Minutes to Decide Dollar’s Next Move

Markets enter the week navigating a delicate balance between safe-haven demand and policy uncertainty. The US dollar has softened amid concerns about Federal Reserve independence, while gold has rebounded toward the psychological $5,000 level as investors seek protection against potential policy missteps. The spotlight now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which could clarify whether policymakers remain committed to holding rates steady or are beginning to acknowledge downside risks to growth. Confidence in the Fed’s stance, rather than the direction of rates alone, will shape cross-asset reactions. Friday’s core PCE and GDP releases carry heightened importance, forcing markets to reconcile inflation and growth dynamics. If inflation remains firm while activity holds up, expectations for rate cuts may be pushed further out, supporting the dollar and limiting upside in metals. Conversely, cooling inflation alongside moderating growth could revive easing bets and pressure the dollar. Beyond the US, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision and Japan’s inflation data add a second layer of FX volatility risk. Currency markets may experience sharper swings than equities, particularly if policy signals shift unexpectedly. Read more on how Fed minutes, inflation data and global policy signals could shape the dollar, gold and FX markets this week.

Learn more

Publication date:

2026-02-19 17:05:43 (GMT)

The terms and conditions of use set out below (referred to as "FX Blue's Terms"), form a contractual agreement governing FX Blue's relationship with you in relation to your use of this Website (“Agreement”) and you agree to be legally bound by FX Blue's Terms just as if you had signed this Agreement. By using this Website and any Information, you are agreeing to comply with and be bound by FX Blue's Terms, including any revisions that may be made to FX Blue's Terms from time to time. FX Blue reserves the right, in FX Blue's sole discretion, to change, modify, add or remove portions of FX Blue's Terms at any time by posting the revisions on the Website. You should check FX Blue's Terms periodically for changes as by using the Website after FX Blue posts any changes to FX Blue's Terms, you are agreeing to accept those changes, whether or not you have reviewed them, and you waive any right you may have to receive individualised notice of such changes. FX Blue's Terms may be supplemented by additional terms and conditions pertaining to specific content and activities. You agree and understand that such additional terms and conditions are hereby incorporated by reference to FX Blue's Terms. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified FX Blue Terms.