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Trading Geopolitical Risk: US-EU Tariffs, Greenland Sovereignty, USD Selling

With US markets affected by MLK Day, liquidity is likely to be a factor that exacerbates market moves. As the new trading week cranks up, we are seeing a strong but measured response to the weekend news flow, with the opening gambit delivering a modest rise in volatility, light portfolio de-risking, and further demand for gold and silver. Gold and Silver Lead as USD Weakens Across G10 FX Notably, gold is up +1.4%, with spot prices now slightly off new all-time highs, while silver continues to run hot, up +3.1%. The NKY225 is down -1.5%, NAS100 futures -1.1%, EU Stoxx -1.2%, and in G10 FX the CHF is outperforming as the USD weakens broadly.

Tariff Headlines Dominate Market Conversations Whether the news flow - while clearly politically significant - ultimately proves to be more noise than lasting signal for market pricing remains to be seen. Anecdotally, however, nearly all conversations today are centred on US–Europe tariff headlines and Trump/Bessent’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric around Greenland. Sovereignty Risks Raise the Stakes for Markets The prevailing belief is that this will settle in the coming weeks, with a deal on Greenland ultimately forged. However, when sovereignty is at stake, the concern is that this could be taken to a far more dangerous place. If the probability of such an outcome does rise, markets are likely to send a strong message to Trump and political leaders more broadly, pushing for diplomacy and de-escalation. Tariff Escalation Revives Memories of the US–China Trade War At this stage, markets are reacting more intently to the weekend news of two-way tariff increases — perhaps drawing some contrast with the US–China tariff war seen during February–April. Prior case studies may be holding traders back from aggressively selling risk, given the ingrained belief in a potential “TACO” moment. Greenland Rhetoric Adds a New Dimension to Political Risk However, this development involves Trump seeking control of a country, which many view as having no real justification - elevating political risk beyond prior tariff disputes. Rising Political Risk Premium Weighs on US Assets and the USD The market dynamic we are seeing increasing evidence of is that US assets, including the USD, are now carrying a much higher political risk premium. This may compel foreign investors to cut back or reduce exposure to US assets. While outright reductions in US equity exposure remain debatable, investment funds may reduce USD notional exposure linked to US equity holdings by altering hedge ratios. That dynamic would further pressure the USD and add upside momentum to the precious metals trade. Europe Prepares to Counter as Markets Assess Escalation Risk Trump clearly understands the leverage he holds from a military perspective and is only too fond of using tariffs to achieve set outcomes. Unsurprisingly, Europeans appear ready to counter with tariffs of their own, presenting a united and defiant stance. While Trump may have expected a strong response, this could force him to come back even harder — and it is here that markets are actively reassessing risk. Low Volatility Pricing Leaves Markets Exposed to Shocks Market participants feel they understand the likely end goal, but we are now in a phase where uncertainty is building and the ability to price risk with confidence is diminished. With cross-asset volatility priced at very low levels, markets holding a lumpy short-volatility position, and leverage and positioning elevated, the risk of short-term volatility is rising - supported by USD selling, higher gold and silver prices, and the potential for US equities to underperform the rest of the world. Good luck to all.

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Publication date:

2026-01-19 10:57:52 (GMT)

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