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Oil Firms as FX Awaits FOMC Minutes | 18th February, 2026

Oil Up, FX Cautious Global markets are showing a mixed tone as oil prices edge higher while currency markets tread cautiously ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. WTI crude is holding above the $62.00 mark, supported by ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could influence supply dynamics. In the FX space, antipodean currencies are in focus: AUD/NZD pushes above 1.1750 after the RBNZ held rates steady, while NZD/USD slides toward 0.6000 as policymakers downplay hawkish prospects. Meanwhile, AUD/USD trades with a negative bias below 0.7100, and EUR/USD consolidates around the mid-1.1800s as traders await fresh policy signals from the Federal Reserve. WTI Crude Oil Forecast Current Price and Context WTI crude edges higher above the $62.00 level as markets monitor ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could influence global supply dynamics. Price action reflects cautious optimism amid geopolitical uncertainty. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran negotiations remain central, with potential easing of sanctions affecting supply outlook. US Economic Data: Demand expectations remain tied to US growth resilience. FOMC Outcome: Dollar direction following the Fed minutes may influence oil pricing. Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions support medium-term demand. Monetary Policy: Rate expectations shape broader risk sentiment and energy demand forecasts. Technical Outlook Trend: Gradual recovery within broader range. Resistance: $63.20 Support: $61.40 Forecast: Further gains possible if geopolitical tensions persist or supply risks re-emerge; however, upside may be capped by Dollar strength. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Mildly constructive. Catalysts: US-Iran headlines, inventory data, FOMC minutes, USD movement. AUD/NZD Forecast Current Price and Context AUD/NZD climbs above 1.1750 after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged, while markets turn attention to the upcoming Australian employment report. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact on the cross. Australian Data: Employment figures may reinforce or challenge RBA policy expectations. RBNZ Policy: Rate hold and cautious tone reduce NZD support. Trade Policy: Regional trade stability supports both currencies. Monetary Policy Divergence: Shifting RBA-RBNZ expectations drive cross momentum. Technical Outlook Trend: Short-term bullish bias. Resistance: 1.1820 Support: 1.1680 Forecast: Upside potential remains if Australian labor data surprises positively. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Constructive on AUD relative to NZD. Catalysts: Australian employment report, central bank commentary. AUD/USD Forecast Current Price and Context AUD/USD trades with a negative bias below 0.7100 as traders position cautiously ahead of the FOMC Minutes and key domestic data releases. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Stable backdrop limits safe-haven flows. US Economic Data: Dollar steadiness pressures the pair. FOMC Outcome: Fed tone remains the dominant near-term driver. Trade Policy: China-linked trade dynamics remain a structural factor. Monetary Policy: Diverging Fed-RBA expectations weigh on AUD. Technical Outlook Trend: Bearish within consolidation. Resistance: 0.7125 Support: 0.7040 Forecast: Downside risks persist unless FOMC Minutes lean dovish and weaken the USD. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish. Catalysts: FOMC minutes, Australian employment data, US yields. NZD/USD Forecast Current Price and Context NZD/USD dives toward 0.6000 after RBNZ commentary downplays hawkish prospects, dampening expectations for further tightening. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct influence. RBNZ Communication: Dovish tone reduces yield appeal of the Kiwi. US Economic Data: Dollar resilience adds downward pressure. Trade Policy: Stable regional trade flows offer limited support. Monetary Policy: Diverging Fed-RBNZ outlook weighs on NZD. Technical Outlook Trend: Bearish momentum. Resistance: 0.6065 Support: 0.5980 Forecast: Sustained break below 0.6000 could extend losses unless the Fed signals a softer stance. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Bearish. Catalysts: FOMC minutes, further RBNZ remarks, risk appetite shifts. EUR/USD Forecast Current Price and Context EUR/USD consolidates around the mid-1.1800s as traders refrain from taking strong positions ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Contained tensions limit safe-haven demand. US Economic Data: Stable US yields support the Dollar. FOMC Outcome: Minutes could clarify timing of rate adjustments. Trade Policy: Limited immediate impact. Monetary Policy Divergence: ECB-Fed expectations remain central to medium-term direction. Technical Outlook Trend: Sideways consolidation. Resistance: 1.1860 Support: 1.1780 Forecast: Breakout potential hinges on the tone of the FOMC Minutes. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Neutral and data-dependent. Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US Treasury yields, Eurozone macro data. Wrap-Up With the FOMC Minutes looming, currency markets remain range-bound as participants look for clarity on the Fed’s rate trajectory. A hawkish tone could reinforce Dollar strength and maintain pressure on high-beta currencies, while a dovish shift may provide relief to the AUD, NZD, and EUR. In commodities, oil’s direction will continue to hinge on geopolitical developments and supply expectations. Overall, volatility may pick up sharply once the Fed’s policy signals are digested across FX and energy markets. Ready to trade global markets with confidence? 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Publication date:

2026-02-18 07:18:06 (GMT)

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