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Week's main events (November 09 - November 13)

This week will be a crucial test of the global market’s resilience, as it grapples with a confluence of US inflation data, political risks surrounding AI regulation, and interest rate differentials between G10 countries and emerging markets. In the United States, the expected slowdown in headline CPI to 0.3% and core CPI to 0.2% is key to keeping hawkish sentiment in check. Otherwise, given October’s NFP figure (+165,000), the market will fully price in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, triggering a rise in the dollar index (DXY) and a new round of stock market declines. In the Eurozone, the release of UK GDP data (+0.7% in Q3) will show how resilient the economy is ahead of the projected peak in inflation (up to 6.2%), while the ECB assesses the sharp spike in producer prices (PPI at 11.1%). In Asia, the key focus will be on the divergence in China between weak consumer inflation (0.8%) and a rally in industrial inflation (5.4%), as well as the Bank of Japan’s “Summary of Views,” which confirms the plan for a December rate hike to 1.50%. Monday, November 09 On Monday, traders will mainly focus on Mexican inflation data following Banxico’s surprise rate cut, while German trade balance figures and Chinese CPI are also on the radar. In China, analysts forecast a 0.2% m/m reading, the same as the previous month, so an in-line print should be neutral. Upside would signal firmer demand, which is mildly positive for the indices but cuts the odds of PBoC easing. In Mexico, consensus is 3.65% y/y, up from 3.45% y/y in September. Banxico has just cut to 6.25% and signaled a long hold, so a hotter print would cast doubt on the cut and support MXN (USD/MXN lower). A softer print would revive easing bets and extend peso weakness. Main events of the day: - China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2) – CHA50, HK50 (MED) - German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED) - Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2) – MXN (MED) Tuesday, November 10 On Tuesday, traders will mainly focus on US CPI data (previous 0.6% m/m, forecast 0.2% m/m; previous 3.7% y/y, forecast – 3.6% y/y), where market participants will parse the core headline trajectory to calibrate Federal Reserve easing expectations and drive cross-asset volatility across gold, US stock indices, and the dollar index. The early session on Tuesday gets underway in the Asia-Pacific region with China’s monthly Trade Balance release. Analysts forecast an October surplus of $135.0 billion, slightly above the previous $133.53 billion. A surplus above forecast would signal resilient external demand and be mildly positive for CHA50 and HK50. Main events of the day: - Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2) – AUD (MED) - China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2) – CHA50, HK50 (MED) - Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – NOK (MED) - US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH) Wednesday, November 11 Wednesday will also be a relatively quiet day with no major economic events. During the European session, traders will assess the German final inflation data. A decline in consumer prices could depreciate the euro. It’s a bank holiday in the United States and Canada. Main events of the day: - German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED) - Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (LOW) Thursday, November 12 On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on UK GDP figures after the Bank of England’s rate hike, while US crude inventories and jobless claims are also on the radar. UK GDP grew 0.1% m/m in August, beating expectations of a 0.1% contraction, after 0.4% growth in July. The BoE raised Bank Rate to 4.00% in an 8-1 vote on November 5. A reading at or above that would support GBP by keeping further hikes on the table. A contraction, which the ONS hinted at with weaker consumer demand and housing activity in September, would weigh on the pound. In Asia, Japan’s Producer Price Index (previous -0.3% m/m, forecast -0.4% m/m; 6.8% y/y, forecast -6.7% y/y) offers early insight into corporate input costs and pipeline inflation across Japanese supply chains. As for Crude Oil Reserves, the commercial stocks fell by 865K barrels to 409.8M in the week ending October 30, against an expected build of 877K. With supply tight, a further draw would support WTI, while a surprise build above 2M barrels would be bearish. Main events of the day: - Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2) – JPY (MED) - UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – GBP (MED) - UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – GBP (LOW) - UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – GBP (LOW) - Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – SEK (MED) - US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – USD (MED) - US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2) – USD (MED) - US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2) – WTI (HIGH) - Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:30 (GMT+2) – EUR (LOW) Friday, November 13 On Friday, the session opens in Europe during the midday hours with the Eurozone’s flash Q3 Gross Domestic Product update (previous -0.6% q/q, forecast -0.4% q/q) alongside monthly Eurozone Trade Balance figures, giving institutional investors a clear gauge of regional growth momentum and trade resilience across the monetary union. A downward revision toward 0.2% would hand the ECB a reason to slow down and weigh on the euro. Attention then pivots to North America during the afternoon session for the high-impact US Producer Price Index report (previous 6.3% y/y, forecast -6.1% y/y), where market participants will scrutinize pipeline inflation dynamics and supply-chain pricing to refine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Another above-forecast print, especially in core, would reinforce the December Fed hike scenario and support USD. Main events of the day: - Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED) - Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED) - US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – USD (HIGH) - US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2) – XNG (HIGH) This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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Publication date:

2026-11-09 10:36:39 (GMT)

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