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Trade USDCAD on the Canadian Employment Data Release

Canadian dollar traders will be looking forward to a clean release of Canadian Employment data in the final trading session of the week this week. The data is frequently released alongside the more impactful US Non-Farms data which makes trading USDCAD a tricky prospect, however with June’s Non-Farms already released, loony traders will be able to trade the Canadian update on its own merits. The market is expecting the data to show an 11k rise in jobs in the month of June after last month’s surprise surge of 88k jobs the month before while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable at 6.6%, having dropped from a lofty 6.9% last month. Given the volatility of the data last month, traders are expecting that another potential surprise could occur and are preparing for strong moves in the USDCAD on the back of it. USDCAD is now sitting about 100 pips off recent annual highs and is setting up nicely from a technical perspective for traders to enter positions which ever way the data falls. Another surprise higher print on the jobs front that could also see a lower unemployment rate would see more Cad appreciation and the USDCAD move lower to challenge strong trendline support on the daily chart around 1.4100, whereas a weaker than expected – which some are expected to correct last month’s surprise to a certain extent – would see the Cad hit hard and USDCAD drive up to challenge trendline resistance and the annual highs in short order. The bigger risk still probably with a weaker print as a break of topside levels opens the way for bigger gains from a technical perspective as the next resistance levels are much further north. Resistance 2: 1.4248 – 2026 Double Top High Resistance 1: 1.4235 – Trendline Resistance Support 1: 1.4102 – Trendline Support Support 2: 1.4010 – Long Term Trendline Support

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Publication date:

2026-07-09 11:52:46 (GMT)

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