The week is macro-heavy and highly relevant for XAUUSD and EURUSD. The main driver will be the US labor market data, for sure. However, the broader narrative links back to the eurozone’s inflation and its growth rate.
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
March 2, 17:00 MT time
This index tracks business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. Since manufacturing is an interest-rate-sensitive area, it quickly reacts to changes in the monetary policy. Previous figures were set at 52.6.
The current consensus expects the ISM Manufacturing PMI to remain slightly below or near previous prints (around 50). This is because manufacturing activity is stabilizing with neither contraction nor strong re-acceleration detected in the sector.
With the clear potential move above 50, gold might fall $40–$80 intraday. The in-line results (near 50, no strong signal) might make XAUUSD fluctuate within the $20–$30 range.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
EUR: GDP (YoY) (Q4)
March 6, 12:00 MT time
Both GDP and CPI together shape the ECB rate expectations. The previous eurozone inflation data issued last week came in line with expectations, showing it is cooling. If GDP also disappoints, the euro will significantly lose macro support. This is because weak inflation and weak GDP put structural pressure on the European Central Bank.
Nevertheless, the current forecast predicts a 1.3% GDP growth year-to-year vs the previous 1.4%. This sets a weaker backdrop for the euro, especially if growth data also underperforms. In this case, the USD reaction will affect EURUSD moves, and the pair may lose 150–200 pips. Gold might drop $30–$70, accordingly.
Conversely, should GDP show better-than-expected results, XAUUSD may push $30–$60 higher.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs.
USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
March 6, 15:30 MT time
This will be one of the most market-moving macro releases of the month. Currently, the market is moderately risk-on and pricing gradual Fed easing (two rate cuts by year-end, starting mid-year). That makes NFP the dominant catalyst.
Strong NFP will delay rate cuts and may push gold down by $80–$150. In-line numbers will unlikely cause any dramatic repricing, and XAUUSD might have volatility spikes, consolidating afterwards.
Finally, the missing prints would weaken USD, and the precious metal might take a $120–$200 potential expansion move. Please also note that NFP data is the main volatility trigger of the period.
Affected instruments: allWeekly Trading News: March 2–6, 2026
The week is macro-heavy and highly relevant for XAUUSD and EURUSD. The main driver will be the US labor market data, for sure. However, the broader narrative links back to the eurozone’s inflation and its growth rate.
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
March 2, 17:00 MT time
This index tracks business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. Since manufacturing is an interest-rate-sensitive area, it quickly reacts to changes in the monetary policy. Previous figures were set at 52.6.
The current consensus expects the ISM Manufacturing PMI to remain slightly below or near previous prints (around 50). This is because manufacturing activity is stabilizing with neither contraction nor strong re-acceleration detected in the sector.
With the clear potential move above 50, gold might fall $40–$80 intraday. The in-line results (near 50, no strong signal) might make XAUUSD fluctuate within the $20–$30 range.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
EUR: GDP (YoY) (Q4)
March 6, 12:00 MT time
Both GDP and CPI together shape the ECB rate expectations. The previous eurozone inflation data issued last week came in line with expectations, showing it is cooling. If GDP also disappoints, the euro will significantly lose macro support. This is because weak inflation and weak GDP put structural pressure on the European Central Bank.
Nevertheless, the current forecast predicts a 1.3% GDP growth year-to-year vs the previous 1.4%. This sets a weaker backdrop for the euro, especially if growth data also underperforms. In this case, the USD reaction will affect EURUSD moves, and the pair may lose 150–200 pips. Gold might drop $30–$70, accordingly.
Conversely, should GDP show better-than-expected results, XAUUSD may push $30–$60 higher.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs.
USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
March 6, 15:30 MT time
This will be one of the most market-moving macro releases of the month. Currently, the market is moderately risk-on and pricing gradual Fed easing (two rate cuts by year-end, starting mid-year). That makes NFP the dominant catalyst.
Strong NFP will delay rate cuts and may push gold down by $80–$150. In-line numbers will unlikely cause any dramatic repricing, and XAUUSD might have volatility spikes, consolidating afterwards.
Finally, the missing prints would weaken USD, and the precious metal might take a $120–$200 potential expansion move. Please also note that NFP data is the main volatility trigger of the period.
Affected instruments: allPublication date:
2026-03-02 13:04:48 (GMT)
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