Market Analysis

It was risk-off on Tuesday; Stocks took a hit and demand for precious metals took hold. Gold and Silver recently carved out floors around US$4,402 and US$71.32, respectively, and caught bids. Record highs are within reach for both metals, particularly after Gold found acceptance above US$5,000.
The Bank of England is due to make its latest interest rate decision early in the London session on Thursday with most market participants anticipating that they will keep rates on hold at 3.75% with the voting from MPC members expected to be more clean cut this time around with just two members expected to have voted for a cut and five to keep rates on hold.
At 12:00 (GMT+2) will be published January data on the Consumer Price Index
Gold & Silver Rebound: Gold surges above $5,000 and Silver rebounds sharply as softer USD momentum, geopolitical risks, and dovish Fed expectations boost safe-haven demand. FX moves are mixed, with AUD supported by strong data, JPY weakening on domestic uncertainty, and NZD under pressure after mixed labour signals.
The Nikkei retreated by 0.78% after a record rally, with losses concentrated in software and chip stocks. Despite the pullback, broader market strength suggests consolidation near record highs.
Gold prices surged 2.1% to $5,051.59 as renewed Middle East tensions fueled demand for safe-haven assets. With geopolitical risks and rising global debt, gold is holding strong above $5,000.
Dollar Firm, Safe Havens Bid: Markets stay defensive as policy and geopolitical uncertainty support the US Dollar, while Yen and Gold attract safe-haven flows on intervention fears and global risks. The Yuan remains stable under PBOC control, and risk sentiment stays cautious amid trade worries and US fiscal uncertainty.
Gold’s recent rally faces significant challenges as the dollar rebounds and NFP data looms. With a more hawkish Fed on the horizon, the future of gold’s momentum is now uncertain.
To say that last week was lively for most traders would be something of an understatement, and for those involved in precious metals and now crypto products, it would be something of an insult. Precious metals saw huge moves north for most of the week before massive corrections on Friday, and traders are expecting to see more chaos in the days ahead.
by Alex Solo BoE and ECB Interest rate decisions, Non-farm payrolls.
Oil Steady, FX Mixed: Oil stabilizes after OPEC+ keeps output unchanged, but gains remain capped by demand uncertainty. The US Dollar stays supported by Fed uncertainty, pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Gold pulls back on profit-taking, while FX and commodities remain range-bound awaiting clearer policy and data signals.
Asia FX Pressure: Asian currencies weaken as the Yen slides on soft Tokyo CPI and fiscal concerns, while the Yuan stays stable under PBOC guidance. A firmer US Dollar pressures AUD from recent highs, and Silver eases on profit-taking. Markets remain cautious ahead of key Fed signals and macro data.
Gold experienced sharp fluctuations following the Fed's policy decision, with XAUUSD dropping 1.83%. The volatility highlighted how quickly price action can reverse in such conditions. Traders face significant challenges during rapid market movements, particularly when liquidity is stressed.
Big Tech earnings suggest the AI cycle is maturing. As investment costs rise, markets are shifting focus from hype to execution, efficiency, and sustainable monetisation.
Oil no longer trades purely on supply and demand. In 2026, macro forces, expectations, and market positioning play a decisive role in price movements, reshaping how traders must analyse and approach the oil market.
Gold Soars Pre-Fed: Gold jumps above $5,200 on strong safe-haven demand as markets brace for the Fed decision. The Dollar steadies but remains cautious, while AUD, NZD, and JPY trade defensively. Near-term direction hinges on Fed guidance, yields, and risk sentiment.
Oil prices trade under pressure as demand concerns outweigh lingering supply risks. WTI slips near $60.50, the Yen weakens on Japan’s fiscal and political uncertainty, while AUD/USD holds near multi-month highs on strong domestic fundamentals. The US Dollar stays soft amid Fed and political uncertainty, with Asian FX steady under active policy management. Markets remain cautious, driven by macro data, central bank signals, and risk sentiment.
The week opens with a different tone across markets. What had been a steady and familiar trade built on yield differentials fractured late last week, reminding traders that currency trends can shift quickly when policy steps into the frame.
US equities pushed higher again in yesterday’s session as risk sentiment continued to improve around Greenland and European tariff concerns. The Dow Jones climbed 0.63% to close at 49,384, while the S&P 500 added 0.55% to finish at 6,913. The Nasdaq outperformed, rising 0.91% to close at 23,436.
Thanks to US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff threats against European allies over his Greenland ambitions – sparking the prospect of a fresh trade war – investors rushed for cover and triggered a familiar ‘Sell America’ trade last week. Stock benchmarks, Bonds, and the USD sold off in tandem – a trifecta of misery reminiscent of last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff debacle.
Markets opened the week with Fed jitters as the US Dollar softened ahead of the FOMC announcement. Broad USD weakness supported major currencies, with NZD/USD rising and AUD/USD consolidating amid cautious risk sentiment. Gold surged to record highs near $5,050 on safe-haven demand. USD/CAD declined below 1.3700 on strong Canadian retail data, while FX and commodity markets remain highly sensitive to Fed guidance, geopolitical headlines, and incoming economic releases.
Stronger-than-forecast U.S. GDP and jobless claims data overnight reinforced economic strength, boosting stocks across major indices by over 1% while pressuring bonds via higher yields and commodities mixed amid reduced rate cut bets; lingering relief from de-escalated tariff threats amplified the equity rebound.
Gold is within correction mode after a powerful rally that pushed the price to its fresh all-time high of $4,889.50 yesterday.
FX markets remain Yen-focused as the BoJ holds policy, keeping the currency under pressure. USD/JPY and Yen-crosses like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY remain elevated, supported by yield differentials and risk appetite. AUD/USD rises on strong Australian data, while USD/CAD is capped by firm oil. Near-term direction hinges on BoJ signals, US data, and policy divergence.
December data on net borrowing by the public sector is due
Current market quotes XAUUSD4,863.72 (+2.12%) EURUSD1.1732 (+0.08%) USDJPY 157.92 (-0.10%) BTCUSD89,227 (-0.20%) Short outlook by currency pair XAUUSD Gold extended its upward move and posted numerous all-time highs at $4,889. As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, XAUUSD remains well supported with the potential for further upside. EURUSD The pair peaked at 1.17700 and pulled back toward current levels. EURUSD maintains a positive technical structure with a bullish bias and steady upward momentum. President D.Trump now holds his speech in Davos, the market eyes the event as guidance toward the potential US dollar direction. USDJPY USDJPY showed signs of downward pressure as the yen benefited from the Japanese officials’ decisions. At the same time, a demand for the Japanese currency accelerates within the risk-off environment, which can bring more downside to the pair in short term. BTCUSD Bitcoin remains under pressure and trades weakly after the recent sell-offs across the crypto market. It slid below the $90,000 support, having erased its gains for the year. However, technically, BTCUSD is seen towards a further decline if the current support line fails to hold. Market sentiment The market stays clearly within the risk-off mode. As a result, defensive instruments have strengthened, while risk assets keep trading under pressure. Should geopolitical tension continue, the longer the shift toward safe-haven assets lasts.
FX markets turn data-driven as strong UK inflation and Australian jobs data lift GBP and AUD. The US Dollar trades steady, CAD finds support from firmer oil, and JPY consolidates ahead of US data and the BoJ decision. Overall moves remain selective, with momentum guided by incoming macro data and policy expectations.
FX markets trade with a European-led tone as the Euro strengthens on upbeat German ZEW data and a softer US Dollar. GBP holds firm ahead of UK CPI, while USD shows selective strength versus CHF, CAD, and NZD amid tariff uncertainty. Overall direction remains data-driven with continued focus on European momentum and upcoming inflation releases.
Markets trade cautiously as oil stabilizes and gold rises on safe-haven demand amid US-EU trade war fears. WTI remains range-bound, USD/CAD steadies, EUR/USD consolidates under pressure, NZD/USD weakens, and gold extends gains. Investor focus stays on tariffs, economic data, and risk sentiment shaping near-term moves.
Netflix (NFLX) heads into Q4 2025 earnings with solid YoY growth expected—revenue ~$11.97B (+16–17%) and EPS ~$0.55 (+29%)—but investor focus is on advertising momentum, subscriber churn, and Warner Bros. deal clarity. Shares are down 30% from highs, trading near $80–$82 support, with resistance at $95–$100. Earnings could spark a rebound or further downside.
US equity markets edged modestly lower on Friday, with investors adopting a cautious tone ahead of a busy earnings calendar in the week ahead.
Markets trade mixed with a cautiously constructive tone. The Yen holds a broader bullish bias, AUD gains support from strong China data, while USD trades unevenly. USD/JPY consolidates with downside risk, USD/CAD weakens on oil strength, USD/CNY stays managed, WTI rebounds modestly, and AUD/USD edges higher as risk sentiment improves.
General Market Analysis – 16/01/26
At 09:00 (GMT+2), Germany will release December data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The US Dollar remains firm as cautious Fed expectations support defensive positioning. Major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD struggle near key levels, while NZD, CAD, and AUD show mixed, range-bound moves. FX markets await fresh economic data and central bank signals, keeping price action largely sideways with slight directional biases.
Markets were mixed as firmer oil prices, supported by renewed Iran-related tensions, contrasted with cautious FX trade. WTI held above $60, while major currencies stayed range-bound awaiting clearer central bank signals. USD/JPY remained elevated on Yen weakness, GBP/USD consolidated near 1.3450, and AUD/USD stayed under pressure below 0.6700 amid a firm USD.
FX markets stayed range-bound as traders waited for key US Retail Sales and PPI data. The US Dollar held firm on a cautious Fed outlook, pressuring GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, while USD/CAD stayed elevated near 1.3900. With volatility muted, markets favored consolidation and defensive positioning until clearer US macro signals emerge.
Markets stayed tense as policy uncertainty drove asset flows. Silver hovered near record highs above $85.50 on strong safe-haven demand, while the Japanese Yen slid sharply, pushing USD/JPY to fresh yearly highs. Asian FX was mixed, with USD/CNY stable under PBOC control and AUD pairs consolidating ahead of key US CPI data.
During the Asia session on January 12, 2026, financial markets opened with Asian equities poised to extend US gains from Friday’s strong jobs data, while oil prices climbed amid intensifying protests in Iran.
After a strong dollar run and fresh equity highs, traders now face a familiar question: pause or push further?
Markets turned defensive as concerns over Fed independence hit confidence and pressured the US Dollar. Gold surged to fresh record highs above $4,550 on strong safe-haven demand, with Silver also supported. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD advanced on broad USD weakness, while DXY slipped toward 98.00 amid rising Fed rate-cut expectations.
Markets are on tenterhooks – today is all about the December US employment report, which is the last jobs print for 2025. This should provide a cleaner view of the labour market and help determine the trajectory of Fed easing and the USD.
Friday 9h January 2026: Asian Stocks Edge Higher as Markets Await Key U.S. Jobs Data and Policy Developments
Asian currencies softened as weak Chinese inflation dampened risk appetite. AUD/USD trades below 0.6720, NZD/USD under 0.5750, while USD/CNY remains stable under PBOC guidance. EUR/JPY pushes above 183.00 on Yen weakness, and USD/JPY stays elevated amid policy divergence. Markets await US Nonfarm Payrolls for next directional cues.
Markets trade cautiously ahead of key US labor data, keeping volatility muted. DXY holds above 98.50 in a tight range, while AUD and NZD remain pressured by firm yields and cautious central bank tones. EUR/USD stays below 1.1700 as momentum fades. Silver stabilizes near $78 as buyers defend key support, reflecting a broad wait-and-see market mood.
The Euro firmed across FX ahead of key Eurozone CPI, lifting EUR/JPY above 183.00 as Yen weakness persisted on fiscal and BoJ doubts. AUD/USD hit 15-month highs on Fed cut bets, while EUR/USD held near 1.1700. In commodities, WTI slipped below $56 as optimism over potential Venezuelan supply outweighed geopolitical risks.
Markets turned defensive as Venezuela-related tensions sparked a surge in safe-haven demand. Gold climbed near $4,450 and Silver jumped above $76.50, while WTI held close to $58 amid supply-risk concerns. The US Dollar eased as geopolitical premiums faded, leaving FX pairs range-bound as traders focused on headlines and Fed expectations.
Markets opened the week defensively as geopolitical tensions and upcoming ISM PMI data boosted broad US Dollar strength. DXY held above 98.50, lifting USD/JPY beyond 154.00 while weighing on GBP, CHF, and AUD. Safe-haven flows dominated, with risk-sensitive currencies under pressure amid softer signals from China and ongoing global uncertainty.
News of US strikes against Venezuela over the weekend could see a lively start to the trading week at the Monday open, and traders will be keeping a close eye on updates from that region as the week progresses.
Markets remained subdued as thin year-end liquidity kept price action range-bound. WTI stayed below $58 and headed for a steep annual decline on demand concerns. EUR/USD struggled above 1.1800, while USD/CAD and NZD/USD consolidated. The PBOC continued to guide the Yuan via fixings, reinforcing stability as investors avoid conviction trades into year-end.
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